Covid-19 ~ Coronavirus lifespan on surfaces

Note:  In COVID-19, ‘CO’ stands for ‘corona,’ ‘VI’ for ‘virus,’ and ‘D’ for disease

The virus is so new there is limited data available on it and research continues.


What is the viruses lifespan on surfaces?

Airbourne:         30 minutes to 3hrs
Cardboard:        24hrs
Stainless Steel:  2 days
Plastic:              3 days

How long does the virus last on clothes?

On clothing and other surfaces harder to disinfect, it is not yet clear how long the virus can survive.

As of 18th March 2020  "the virus's survival on natural fibres has only been tested on cardboard."

How long does it last in your hair?

There is not much data available on this but Elizabeth Ransom, chief physician executive at Baptist Health in Jacksonville said this...

"Ransom said she wouldn’t be particularly concerned about hair or skin elsewhere on the body carrying the virus, since they would rarely come into contact with infected surfaces. As long as you’re washing your hands frequently, continue twirling your tresses as you please."

“It could be in your hair, but it would be hard to imagine unless someone actively coughed and got droplets in your hair,” Ransom said. “The most common mechanism for transmission is related to hands, because we’re using them all the time, constantly touching things, and we aren’t even aware of it. Then we touch our faces all the time without even thinking about it.”

How is it spreading?

"Like many respiratory viruses, including flu, Covid-19 can be spread in tiny droplets released from the nose and mouth of an infected person as they cough. A single cough can produce up to 3,000 droplets. These particles can land on other people, clothing and surfaces around them, but some of the smaller particles can remain in the air. There is also some evidence that the virus is also shed for longer in faecal matter, so anyone not washing their hands thoroughly after visiting the toilet could contaminate anything they touch."

"The virus is most likely to spread from person to person through close contact and respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes that can land on a nearby person's mouth or nose, according to the CDC."

Isn't it the same as Flu?

No - In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.

Isn't it the same as SARS?

In comparison Covid-19 lasts about the same time on hard surfaces but three times longer on cardboard than SARS did: 24hrs, compared to eight hours.

Considerations.

Due to the lifespan of 24 hrs on cardboard and most things are delivered in boxes. Maybe you should think about quarantining deliveries for 24hrs before opening?

What about letters?

What about food deliveries?

What about packaging around food in shops that are possibly picked up and handled by many people?




LINKS
livescience-Here’s how long the coronavirus will last on surfaces, and how to disinfect those surfaces.
bbc-Covid-19: How long does the coronavirus last on surfaces?
foxnews-New study details lifespan of coronavirus in air, on surfaces
mirror-Doctor explains how long coronavirus can live on clothes - and shares washing advice
cdc.gov-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
businessinsider-The coronavirus lives on copper for 4 hours, on cardboard for 1 day, and on plastic for 3 days, new research says.
nejm-Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
huffingtonpost-How Long Does Coronavirus Live On Skin, Hair And Nails?
https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/wellness/a31789443/coronavirus-questions-answers-faq
 

Covid-19 ~ Italy's advise - Get Ready

The crisis gripping the town at the centre of the global COVID-19 crisis in Italy has been witnessed by Sky News' Chief Correspondent Stuart Ramsay.

We will wait and see how it pans out

UK currently 22/03/20
5,683  Cases
281     Deaths
93       Recovered

UK Current 29/03/20 (7 days later)
19,522 Cases
1,228   Deaths
135      Recovered

Covid-19 ~ To put things in a simplistic nutshell

1. The government has totally messed up the Coronavirus response and I mean really messed up.
2. They should have listened to WHO, and other countries that were way ahead of the UK in dealing with the virus, they didn't, they thought they knew better, they didn't.
3. Not responding when they should have will cost a lot of lives, we could have been ahead of the game. We are now on the back foot.
4. Cheltenham should never have gone ahead and will have been a catalyst for the explosion that is coming.
5. All the lies and misinformation that Boris Johnson has spouted during Brexit has led to people not believing him when he needed them to. In essence, the chickens came home to roost.
6. This is the long haul now don't go thinking that Pubs, clubs etc will be opening next month. This will be the end of the year or even next year and I have no idea how that will work.
7. There are two things that might change this, a cheap and easy test for Coronavirus or a vaccine. Can't see a vaccine being available till next year. Maybe an existing drug can be modified?
8. It's just like Flu - sorry no it's not do some proper research.  Coronavirus is twice as infectious as Flu.
9. Flu kills more people - at present, yes and we have immunity built up over years and vaccines for flu we have nothing for Coronavirus. Flu kills 0.1% of patients Covid-19 is over 10 times higher.  If Coronavirus infected as many people as flu does the death rates would be 10 times higher.
10. It only affects older people badly - Chinese study showed that there was 14.8% mortality among over 80s.  41% of serious cases occurred among under 50s and 27% over 65s.  You may be lucky if you get it and only have something mild or you may not its pot luck.
11. I addition they knew we had a higher population density than most and it would, therefore, spread more quickly, another reason they should have reacted sooner.

LINKS

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences

How The Novel Coronavirus And The Flu Are Alike ... And Different

New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic

telegraph-Data modelling suggests UK will suffer 20,000 coronavirus deaths

telegrap-UK coronavirus death toll of 20,000 'a good outcome', says chief scientific adviser

telegraph-The terrifying data behind the government's sudden coronavirus lockdown
‘For Unknown Reasons They Waited. And Watched’ – Lancet Editor Exposes Devastating Government Failure On Coronavirus

UPDATES
Graphic added 12/05/20

Drowned Migrants Coffins - Not Coronavirus victims

This picture of coffins is doing the rounds, but it's not coronavirus victims in italy.

It's actually a picture of drowned migrants coffins.

https://www.wfae.org/post/list-loss-newspaper-collects-tragic-tally-33293-dead-migrants#stream/0

Some 300 people died off the island of Lampedusa in a shipwreck southern Italy in 2013. Here, their coffins fill a large room as they wait to be moved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-29455555

The more fake stuff gets perpetuated the more people won't believe what they should believe.

We have enough problems with a PM, Boris Johnson, that has so far lied through his teeth about everything and anything and now people don't believe a word he says.  Lies have a habit of coming back to bit you in the ass and Johnson is finding that out now.

Noone is a expert in this, even the experts haven't got the answers and change their thinking on a daily basis because this is so new.  They are not even 100% certain that you cant get it again once you have had it. We can try and avoid spreading misinformation though.
The facts are OK on their own lets not distribute fake news.

Hospital beds, Staff, Doctors we just don't have enough.

We have 17,000 fewer NHS beds along with staff than we had in 2010 and the NHS was struggling before Covid-19 came along.
The effect of that is obvious in the current situation the NHS will get overwhelmed much sooner than it would have done.

We have the least amount of beds compared with any other country in the EU. The UK has about 2 beds per 1,000 people, Germany, by comparison, has 6.

https://www.ft.com/content/effd0dae-655f-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

We have fewer doctors than most other countries

https://www.ft.com/content/effd0dae-655f-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

The figures below were taken from data available at 22/03/20 00:06 GMT

The death rates in Germany are incredibly low, wonder why that is?

Italy
Coronavirus Cases = 53,578 Deaths = 4825 = 9%

Germany

Coronavirus Cases = 22,364 Deaths = 84 = 0.37%

UK

Coronavirus Cases = 5,015 Deaths = 233 = 4.64%

France
Coronavirus Cases = 14,459 Deaths = 562 = 3.88%


Cases in Italy passed the 100 mark reaching 157 on 23rd Feb 2020
Cases in Germany passed the 100 mark reaching 130 on 1st March 2020 Italy +8
Cases in the UK passed the 100 mark reaching 116 on 5th March 2020 Italy +12
Cases in France passed the 100 mark reaching 100 cases on 29th Feb 2020 Italy +6

We are approx 12 days behind Italy and if you go back 12 days on Italy figures they were at 9172 infections the UK is currently on 5,015 (4,157 fewer cases) so we are not matching Italy although this is unpredictable and we will run out of beds sooner.
We are approx 4 days behind Germany. If you go back 4 days on German figures they were at 9,367. Again we are not matching them with 4,352 fewer cases.
France reached 100 cases on Feb 29th so we are 5 days behind them. On March 15th France had 6,633 infections. This is closest to the UK but France still has 1,618 more infections.
Unfortunately, these figures don't show the true scale of what we are facing and I think we are about to find that out.
The long and the short of it is we don't have the hospital beds, staff, or doctors to cope.
Government policy to do the opposite of what the rest of the world was doing and WHO was recommending will cost a lot of lives.

Time will now tell, but this is a long-haul situation.


LINKS
bbc.- Have 17,000 NHS beds been cut in England?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Coronavirus test needed

Best thing Governments could do at present is to produce a quick easy test to see who in the population has already had Coronavirus.  Then those who have had it can carry on as normal and those that haven't can isolate.  This would save billions.


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic?

Covid-19 ~ if you were a government with an aging population

facebook

13 March at 23:18 · 

So if you were a government with an ageing population that you can't afford to pay the pensions for, a health service with not enough nurses because of your own policies. It would be a great idea to risk zigging when everyone else has zagged. Doing exactly the opposite of China where corvid-19 is now tailing off.

Blojo even blatantly admitted people are going to lose loved ones and the inference wasn't small numbers when the chief scientific officer is talking about 80% worst-case scenario. That's way way above what other countries are seeing. Even if you go at 2% your talking over 10,000 deaths way above China.

This strategy is a big gamble or is it.🤔...just saying.

#devilsadvocate

UK and Coronavirus

Something kept bugging me about Boris Johnsons latest Coronavirus announcement.

China put in place the most Draconian methods but appear to have contained Corvid-19 with daily new cases now dropping right off, if the information is correct. However, while the rest of the world Zigs the UK has chosen to Zag, only time will tell whether that is sheer incompetency or a master stroke.

Personally I think we will get a massive rise of cases around the country the requisite time after the biggest sporting event the UK holds has finished, i.e. Cheltenham, half a million people in one place, Hmmmm.

It’s already hitting football managers, Players, sporting events around the world have been cancelled in an unprecedented way.

The UKs response meanwhile is for Boris to stand up and say “lots of loved ones are going to die, but in true British fashion, “We will get through this” 

On the podium as well was Sir Patrick Vallance Chief Scientific Adviser and Christopher Whitty Chief Medical Officer.  Who seemed to have conflicting opinion, Vallance said the worst case scenario 80% of population could get it and we could expect 1% deaths.  Whitty said there was no way of knowing how many might get it. Maybe they should be singing from same hymn sheet?

So let’s just take a look at their the worst case scenario.

80% of population of UK which is currently 67,779,093 = 54,223,274

Worst case scenario 54 million people could get it but these type of figures haven’t happened anywhere else in the world and china is tailing off.

1% deaths would be 542,232 again a figure not seen anywhere else or even remotely close, if we believe the figures being made public.

Assuming this worst case scenario is way above anything seen elsewhere let's go for a small 2% of their 80% worst case which is 1,084,465 infections.

1% of deaths would still be 10,844 still way above anything even China has seen, whose total deaths so far are 3,177.

So why say your using the best knowledge and scientific data of what has happened so far and tell everyone a worst case of 80% when that hasn’t happened anywhere in the world? Must be a reason, we are talking highly knowledgeable people here, with access to extensive data resources.

As they are obviously using modelling with data far better than my fag packet calculations and we know that no country is the same, it could be population density that pushes up our model in the UK.

So lets look at that.

49           United Kingdom                   724/mi²

70           Italy                                       520/mi²                204/mi² difference to UK             39.23%

80           China                                     384/mi²                340/mi² difference to UK             88.54%

The UK's population density is 88% greater than China, Wow really didn't know that and 39% greater than Italy.

So lets extrapolate that.

China cases 80,814 x 88% = 71,116 + 80,814 = 151,930 possible UK infections based on what were being told has happened in China and factoring in the UK being 88% more densely populated.

Lets try deaths in china and factor in the UK increased population density. 3,177 x 88%  = 2795 + 3177 = 5,972 possible UK Deaths

Still way higher than China even using low percentages and way below what the Governments suggesting even taking just 2% of their worst case scenario.  But population density certainly seems to make sense for the increased expectation for the UK.

So why is the government suggesting a worst case of 80% yes its a possibility but the evidence from other countries doesn't even come close.

Something is not right.

NOTE

Just a brain dump of my thoughts nothing more.

LINKS

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/05/as-chris-whitty-provides-a-dose-of-reality-boris-is-just-an-annoying-distraction

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51862922/up-to-10000-in-uk-likely-to-have-coronavirus-chief-scientific-adviser

50,000 more nurses? 31,000 is the answer.

50,000 more nurses?

How many of those will actually be new?   31,000 is the answer.       #nomoremisinformation

This is a fairly simple one and i'm not even going to get into whether they can achieve 31,000 more nurses, fund it, train them etc although I did see something on a nurses site which said they wouldn't be full nurses as they take 3 years to train, but another time for that.

So this is just about maths and misinformation of which this election and indeed the referendum saw levels of lying, fake news, misinformation, vilification on a scale never seen before and its a scary direction we are heading in. Democracy is voting on facts not misinformation, Dictators use lies, and misinformation.

Anyway I give you two Tories and a BloJo (Not a bad name for a group that :-))

The maths are simple stop trying to spin it and say it as it is, in the end Boris had to but bloody hell did it take some time.

If you have 2 cows and the Tories give you 3 more, do you have 5 more cows or 3 more cows?

If you have 2 apples  and the Tories give you 3 more, do you have 3 more apples or 5 more?

If you have 2 pound coins in your pocket and the Tories give you 3 more, do you have 3 more pound coins or 5 more?


No more needs to be said really.






LINKS
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-election-nurses-nhs-tories-latest-nicky-morgan-a9216506.html?
https://fullfact.org/election-2019/conservative-manifesto-2019/
https://fullfact.org/election-2019/50000-more-nurses-claim-conservative-manifesto-accurate/
https://inews.co.uk/news/health/boris-johnson-admits-that-50000-more-nurses-pledge-only-refers-to-31000-new-nurses-1335650
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-boris-johnsons-promise-of-50-000-more-nurses-deceitful-11869721
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/election-2019-50752973/johnson-50000-more-nurses-i-should-say-as-the-bbc-are-checking
https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1210336/Matt-Hancock-Charlie-Stayt-NHS-50000-nurses-Election-news-BBC-Breakfast-video
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/professional/general-election-boris-johnson-nhs
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-nurses-nhs-tory-manifesto-general-election-brexit-penzance-a9221301.html
https://www.indy100.com/article/question-time-general-election-tory-maths-brandon-lewis-9225711

We will leave the EU in six weeks - YUP ITS A LIE

So Boris and his team of Tories claim we will leave the EU in six weeks at the end of January.

BloJo has repeated this several times, others have repeated it on Radio and Mark Francois, deputy chairman of the European Research Group, has stated....

Looking to the future, he added: “Once we leave the European Union on January 31, we withdraw from its institutions.
“We are no longer part of the customs union, we are no longer part of the single market.
“We withdraw our MEPs from the European Parliament (sorry Nigel!) because quite rightly we no longer have rights to have seats.

Lets just look at that.

YUP ITS A LIE

The facts are, once BloJo has got his/Mayhems changed deal through parliament we then enter into a transition stage at the end of January. This is not leaving the EU.... to spell it out

• We will still be part of the customs union.
• Still be part of the single market.
• We will still be abiding by EU rules and regulation.
• We will still be paying into the EU budget.
• And we will still be paying into EU projects agreed during this transition period until they are completed.

Until the end of December 2020

That's just the simple version.......

I hope that clears things up for a few people .....and a few politicians including BloJo who either hasnt got a clue or is just carrying on with the pathological lying. The worrying thing being it seems to be spreading, other Tories are catching pathological lying and I never thought it was a transmittable disease.  

Transition
The transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.
The UK will need to abide by EU rules and pay into the EU budget, but will lose membership of its institutions.
The transition can be extended, but only for a period of one or two years.
Both the UK and EU must agree to any extension.

At the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, the UK is set to exit the EU’s customs union and single market and enter newly negotiated arrangements. 

The Withdrawal Agreement ensures a smooth winding-down of current EU-UK arrangements during a transition period that lasts until 31 December 2020. The EU will treat the UK as if it were a Member State during the transition. 

The transition period can be extended once by a newly established EU-UK Joint Committee, as long as it decides to do so before 1 July 2020. 

During the transition, all EU legislation, rules and court decisions will continue to apply to and in the UK as if it were a Member State. 

This means the UK will continue to participate in the EU Customs Union and the Single Market (with all four freedoms) and all Union policies. 

Any changes to EU legislation or rules will automatically apply to the UK. 

The Withdrawal Agreement protects the rights of over three million EU citizens in the UK, and over one million UK nationals in EU countries, meaning they can continue to live, work or study as they currently do. 

It also outlines a financial settlement, ensuring the UK honours all financial obligations undertaken while it was a Member State. 

The amount will be determined by an agreed methodology that honours all joint commitments from the EU budget (2014-2020), including outstanding commitments at the end of 2020. 

That means all EU projects and programmes funded from the current EU budget and involving UK partners will continue to be financed until they’re completed.

LINKS
Brexit: What is in Boris Johnson's new deal with the EU?
Brexit: What happens now?
What is the Withdrawal Agreement Bill?
EU looks at extending Brexit transition period beyond 2020
Brexit countdown! Tory Mark Francois sets out exit timetable ‘DEFINITELY going to happen’
Brexit and Ireland

All this achieved by just 4 million muslims out of the 66 million population

Muslims in the UK: the viral poster, factchecked

From 2017 and still doing the rounds .....my mate Sid the Sun reader came up with this one. You have to laugh.

Personally I think all religion should be banned however that's not going to happen and whilst I think its a load of old eyewash (as my Dad used to say) it does bring comfort to a lot of people. However it brings a lot of discomfort to a lot of other people.

I've always thought you have the right to believe in whatever you want as long as it doesn't adversely  affect others, so if your not adversely affecting others crack on.

Apart from the meme above I saw another comment which someone stated as if it was undisputed fact "If muslims pray in their own house they are exempt from council tax" again this is a load of old eyewash.  https://fullfact.org/online/muslims-arent-exempt-from-council-tax/

Anyway back to the meme which surprise, surprise is largely incorrect. No pint me reinvesting the wheel when Fullfact have already done the leg work so Ive posted their summaries below see their full article for the detail.   https://fullfact.org/news/muslims-uk-viral-poster-factchecked/

Muslim Mayors
Claim: The mayors of London, Birmingham, Leeds, Blackburn, Sheffield, Oxford, Luton, Oldham, and Rochdale are Muslim.
Conclusion: All of these places have had a Muslim mayor in the past, they do not all currently have a Muslim mayor.

Mosques
Claim: There are over 3,000 mosques in the UK.
Conclusion: This figure is probably too high. Although there is no definitive source, the true figure is likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000.

Sharia councils
Claim: There are over 130 Sharia Courts and 50 Sharia councils in the UK.
Conclusion: There is no difference between a Sharia council and a Sharia court, and no definitive figures for how many there are. Around 30 major Sharia councils have been identified, rising to “85 at least” when smaller councils and online forums are included. They aren’t formal courts of law and cannot overrule national law.

No-go areas
Claim: There are Muslims-only “no-go areas” in the UK.
Conclusion: There is no formal definition of a no-go area. The Metropolitan Police and the Foreign Office say there are no areas where the law can't be enforced in the UK. The police service inspector has commented there are "communities from other cultures who would prefer to police themselves" which the police are never called to, though he doesn't specify whether these are Muslim.

Unemployment
Claim: 78% of Muslim women don't work and are on free benefits/housing.
Conclusion: Roughly right for work, but we're not aware of any figures on benefits and housing by religion. 16% of Muslim women are unemployed, while a further 58% are ‘economically inactive’, using 2015 figures. At the same time, about 5% of women in the UK were unemployed and 42% economically inactive. 

Claim: 63% of Muslim men don't work and are on free benefits/housing.
Conclusion: Incorrect. 11% of Muslim men are unemployed, while a further 24% are ‘economically inactive’, using 2015 figures. At the same time, about 6% of men in the UK were unemployed and 31% economically inactive. We're not aware of any figures for benefits and housing by religion.

Benefits and housing
Claim: 6-8 children “planning to go on free benefits/housing”.
Conclusion: In England and Wales, the average Muslim household with children has 2.3 children, compared to 1.8 for households overall. We're not aware of any figures for benefits and housing by religion.

Halal meat in schools
Claim: All UK schools are only serving Halal meat.
Conclusion: Incorrect. Schools can choose whether or not to serve Halal-only meat. Many don’t.

Population
Claim: There are 4 million Muslims in the UK.
Conclusion: Incorrect. The Muslim population is estimated to be 3.1 million in 2015, out of around 65 million.

For further details on each item please see the fullfact article link below it was Published: 31st Jul 2017

LINKS
https://fullfact.org/news/muslims-uk-viral-poster-factchecked
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity