Something kept bugging me about Boris Johnsons latest Coronavirus announcement.
China put in place the most Draconian methods but appear to
have contained Corvid-19 with daily new cases now dropping right off, if the information is correct. However, while the rest of the world Zigs the UK has chosen to Zag,
only time will tell whether that is sheer incompetency or a master stroke.
Personally I think we will get a massive rise of cases
around the country the requisite time after the biggest sporting event the UK
holds has finished, i.e. Cheltenham, half a million people in one place, Hmmmm.
It’s already hitting football managers, Players, sporting
events around the world have been cancelled in an unprecedented way.
The UKs response meanwhile is for Boris to stand up and say “lots
of loved ones are going to die, but in true British fashion, “We will get
through this”
On the podium as well was Sir Patrick Vallance Chief
Scientific Adviser and Christopher Whitty Chief Medical Officer. Who seemed to have conflicting opinion, Vallance
said the worst case scenario 80% of population could get it and we could expect
1% deaths. Whitty said there was no way
of knowing how many might get it. Maybe they should be singing from same hymn sheet?
So let’s just take a look at their the worst case scenario.
80% of population of UK which is currently 67,779,093 = 54,223,274
Worst case scenario 54 million people could get it but these type of
figures haven’t happened anywhere else in the world and china is tailing off.
1% deaths would be 542,232 again a figure not seen anywhere else or even remotely close, if we believe the figures being made public.
1% deaths would be 542,232 again a figure not seen anywhere else or even remotely close, if we believe the figures being made public.
Assuming this worst case scenario is way above anything seen elsewhere let's go for a small 2% of their 80% worst case which is 1,084,465 infections.
1% of deaths would still be 10,844 still way above anything
even China has seen, whose total deaths so far are 3,177.
So why say your using the best knowledge and scientific data
of what has happened so far and tell everyone a worst case of 80% when that hasn’t
happened anywhere in the world? Must be a reason, we are talking highly knowledgeable people here, with access to extensive data resources.
As they are obviously using modelling with data far better than
my fag packet calculations and we know that no country is the same, it could be
population density that pushes up our model in the UK.
So lets look at that.
49 United
Kingdom 724/mi²
70 Italy 520/mi² 204/mi² difference to UK 39.23%
80 China 384/mi² 340/mi² difference to UK 88.54%
The UK's population density is 88% greater than China, Wow really didn't know that and 39% greater than Italy.
So lets extrapolate that.
China cases 80,814 x 88% = 71,116 + 80,814 = 151,930 possible
UK infections based on what were being told has happened in China and factoring in the UK being 88% more densely populated.
Lets try deaths in china and factor in the UK increased population density. 3,177 x 88% = 2795 + 3177 = 5,972 possible UK Deaths
Still way higher than China even using low percentages and way below what the Governments suggesting even taking just 2% of their worst case scenario. But population density certainly seems to make sense for the increased expectation for the UK.
So why is the government suggesting a worst case of 80% yes its a possibility but the evidence from other countries doesn't even come close.
Something is not right.
So why is the government suggesting a worst case of 80% yes its a possibility but the evidence from other countries doesn't even come close.
Something is not right.
NOTE
Just a brain dump of my thoughts nothing more.
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