Friday, 16 December 2016

Brexit trade deal could take 10 years


In my opinion it will be 20 years before we've finished dealing with Brexit fallout.  The UKs ambassador thinks it could take 10 years to get a trade deal sorted out. Theresa May however hasn't got a clue and successfully answers every question that wasn't asked and avoids the one that was asked.


Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's ambassador.

"Mayhem" (Theresa May) yet again successfully avoids answering the very clear and succinct question put to her. 








Links
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146


Tuesday, 13 December 2016

Was the Falkands War Thatchers Gamble to save her skin

Whilst I take absolutely nothing away from British forces and their amazing undertaking to recapture the Falkland Islands. I still think it was nothing more than a gamble by Margaret Thatcher to secure another term as prime minister.

At the time she was one of the most unpopular prime ministers ever and was heading for a massive defeat, there were four major things that happened.
  1. The British ignored things that the Argentinian's were saying in the UN or hints that they were making about military action.
  2. John Nott withdrew the HMS Endurance which was the support ship for the Falklands.
  3. The British government brought in the British nationality act of 1981 which replaced the full British citizenship of Falkland islanders with the more limited version.
  4. Intelligence had been received that the Argentinian's might attempt something and Thatcher was advised to dispatch a small military force but refused to do so.
All these things lead the Argentinians to believe that Britain would not fight for the Falklands.

Also at the time, the Conservative government was cutting the military to shreds the 1981 defence white paper (titled "The UK Defence Programme: The Way Forward" Cmnd 8288) was a major review of the United Kingdom's defence policy brought about by the Conservative government under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. (Link)
"It was ultimately judged however to have been extremely detrimental to the Defense of the Realm, being among other things widely considered to have been one of the contributing factors that led to the outbreak of the Falklands War."

In fact, the defence cuts and the four points above ended up costing the country billions and continue to do so.

My only assumption of this, knowing that she was a very intelligent lady, was that she knew exactly what she was doing. She led Britain into a war to secure her Premiership, as we know she went from being the most unpopular p.m. to being the most popular after the war.

In retrospect in 1976 James Callaghan had sent a small military force to the South Atlantic called Operation Journeyman when Argentina landed 50 men on an unoccupied southern Thule that belonged to the South Sandwich Islands. "The flotilla led by nuclear-powered submarine HMS Dreadnaught was thought to have deterred a 1977 invasion."

We also have to take into account that the government had tried on two separate occasions to negotiate the Falklands away but had been thwarted by the islanders.

I actually had a conversation with Sandy Woodward who was Rear Admiral of the task force, he was a member of the Sailing Club I was also a member of. One of the few things he did say was that "it was very close at times, could have been a different story."

The Falklands War - The Untold Story (Full Documentary)

The telling quote in the documentary Major General Julian Thompson 
"there was a political need for a victory"
"Though you don't mind dying for queen and country you certainly don't contemplate dying for politicians"
"I shall win the war for these buggers and then I shall go."  


SOAPBOX SUMMARY
So on the whole the Conservative government had tried twice to negotiate the Falklands away, they withdrew the HMS Endurance the support ship of the Falklands. They changed the citizenship of the Falkland islanders by bringing in the British nationality act of 1981 which replaced the full British citizenship of Falkland islanders with the more limited version and Thatcher refused to dispatch a limited force when they received intelligence that the Argentinian's might attempt something. If you were trying to get the Argentinian's to try something you couldn't have done much more.

Thatcher was also a most unpopular and failing PM, having increased unemployment by 50% to 3 million, after promising to reduce it during the 1979 election campaign and she badly needed something to save her.

In my opinion, the above makes Thatcher responsible for the deaths of all 255 of the valiant servicemen that went and solved a problem either caused by her governments total incompetence or created to save her as PM.

Funnily enough, the two carriers were being sold off due to the defence cuts mentioned above. Had Argentina waited for 8 months, the UK wouldn't have had any carriers and would have been unable to recover the Falklands militarily.

Those defence cuts cost the country billions more than they would have saved and continue to cost the country due to the additional military presence now required constantly at the Falklands.

Nott didn't resign because he was right, it was because either he had royally fcuked up or he fell on the sword because Thatcher fcuked up and someone else needed to take the blame.

No one person is entirely to blame as I've no doubt they all sat around a table and agreed it. However, the Thatcher Government is wholly to blame and I'd love to see someone argue against that statement.



LINKS
The Guardian - How Margaret Thatcher's Falklands gamble paid off
Wikipedia - Events leading to the Falklands War
Wikipedia - Margaret Thatcher
Telegraph - Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands War: doubts and fears in a far-off conflict that changed Britain
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3158/Margaret-Thatcher-19252013.aspx
Mercopress - Falklands war, a turning point for Margaret Thatcher’s image and political fortunes
The Iron Lady - THATCHER'S WAR - THE FALKLAND ISLANDS
Sky - Margaret Thatcher: Falklands Was Defining
http://www.redpepper.org.uk/1983-the-biggest-myth-in-labour-party-history/
Wikipedia - 1981 Defence White Paper
Wikipedia - Operation Journeyman
Voting Intention 1979-1983
bbc.co.uk - Secret Falklands fleet revealed
Guardian - UK held secret talks to cede sovereignty
Guardian - Thatcher was ready for Falkland Islands deal, National Archives papers show
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1982/apr/29/falkland-islands

Someone with a similar opinion to mine
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2nouud/why_did_margaret_thatcher_want_the_falklands_so/
http://alienatedleft.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/thatchers-falklands-war-got-hundreds.html



[Document was updated: 05/01/19]

Historical Corrections and Clarifications

17 October 2026

This article was originally written in 2016 and reflects my views at that time. Rather than rewriting history, including my own opinions, I've retained the original article and added the following factual corrections and clarifications.

1. HMS Endurance

The ship was HMS Endurance, not HMS Endeavour. More importantly, the Thatcher government had announced its withdrawal as part of the 1981 defence cuts, but the vessel had not actually been withdrawn when Argentina invaded in April 1982.

The decision was subsequently acknowledged as potentially having sent the wrong signal to Argentina.

Source: Hansard, Falkland Islands Review, 25 January 1983

2. British Nationality Act 1981

The 1981 Act created different categories of British nationality, including British Dependent Territories citizenship. However, its main provisions did not come into force until 1 January 1983, after the Falklands War.

In April 1982, the government stated that approximately 1,400 islanders would also qualify as British citizens under the new arrangements. The British Nationality (Falkland Islands) Act 1983 subsequently extended British citizenship to qualifying islanders.

Source: Hansard, Falkland Islanders, 8 April 1982

3. Aircraft carriers

My original claim that Britain would have had no aircraft carriers if Argentina had waited another eight months was incorrect.

Under the 1981 defence proposals, HMS Invincible was earmarked for sale to Australia, but HMS Hermes would have remained in service until the newer carriers became available.

The cuts nevertheless raised legitimate concerns about Britain's future naval capabilities.

Source: Royal Air Force, Air and Space Power Review

4. John Nott's resignation

John Nott offered his resignation following the Argentine invasion in April 1982, but Margaret Thatcher refused to accept it.

It was Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington who resigned on 5 April 1982, accepting responsibility for the failure to prevent the invasion. Nott remained Defence Secretary throughout the conflict and left the government in January 1983.

Source: Margaret Thatcher Foundation, Private Files for 1982

5. Unemployment under Thatcher

I originally stated that unemployment had increased by 50% to three million.

In fact, the increase was substantially greater. Official figures provided to Parliament show that seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rose from 1,312,000 in May 1979 to 2,836,000 in February 1982, an increase of 116.2%.

The provisional unadjusted registered total in February 1982 exceeded three million.

Source: Hansard, Unemployment Statistics, 2 March 1982

6. Operation Journeyman

Operation Journeyman took place in 1977, under James Callaghan's Labour government, following the establishment of an Argentine presence on South Thule in 1976.

The deployment included the nuclear-powered submarine HMS Dreadnought, two frigates and supporting vessels.

The deployment was subsequently credited with deterring possible Argentine military action, although it cannot be established with certainty that an invasion would otherwise have occurred.

Source: The Guardian, How Britain Averted a Falklands Invasion in 1977

7. Negotiations over Falklands sovereignty

The British government's willingness to consider transferring sovereignty to Argentina is well documented, although it was not a policy unique to Thatcher.

In 1980, the Thatcher government explored a leaseback arrangement under which sovereignty would transfer to Argentina while British administration continued.

The islanders opposed the proposal. Released government papers show officials recognised their resistance and the difficulty of securing an acceptable agreement.

The original article refers to two separate attempts. It would be more accurate to describe successive negotiations and proposals rather than two clearly defined attempts to surrender the islands.

Source: Margaret Thatcher Foundation, Lord Carrington's Falklands Files

8. Intelligence warnings and military deterrence

My original article states that Thatcher refused advice to deploy a small military force.

The broader issue of inadequate deterrence was raised during parliamentary debates following publication of the Franks Report. However, the original wording is too categorical without identifying a specific recommendation, its date and the person who rejected it.

Thatcher's government did receive warnings about potential Argentine military action. The historical dispute concerns whether sufficient steps were taken, early enough, to deter an invasion.

Source: Hansard, Franks Report Debate, 25 January 1983

9. British casualties

The figure of 255 British military personnel killed during the Falklands conflict is correct.

Three Falkland Islands civilians were also killed.

Source: Imperial War Museums, Falklands Memorial

10. Deliberate provocation or failed deterrence?

My central argument remains an opinion rather than a proven historical conclusion.

There is documentary evidence of diplomatic warnings, proposed defence reductions, negotiations over sovereignty and concern about the effectiveness of British deterrence.

However, these facts do not establish that Thatcher deliberately encouraged Argentina to invade for electoral advantage. The distinction between a calculated political gamble, mistaken judgement and deliberate provocation remains important.

The original article should therefore be read as my interpretation of the events, not as proof of Thatcher's intentions.

Source: Margaret Thatcher Foundation, Lord Carrington's Falklands Files


Document updated: 17/10/2026. Corrected HMS Endeavour to HMS Endurance and added historical footnotes. The original article and opinions remain otherwise unchanged.