Showing posts with label UK Deaths. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UK Deaths. Show all posts

Wednesday, 27 January 2021

COVID - Why does the UK have highest death rate in Europe.

The question seems to be being asked as to why we have the highest death rate in Europe.

To me its a no brainer, not sure why its even a question, seems fairly obvious.
  1. UK Gov, didn't take on board the reccomendations of the 2016 pandemic report, operation cygnus, this wasnt an if it was a when. It was known this would happen, they just couldnt predict exactly when.
  2. Because of point 1 frontline staff ran out of PPE and the Gov had to spend millions to get stocks, some of which were not fit for purpose.
  3. UK's High population density in relation to land mass.
  4. One of the lowest levels of ICU beds and staff in Europe.
  5. Didnt close borders. Easy for the UK to close borders as we are an island.
  6. Slow to react in bring in a lock down, which wasnt really a lock down. Initially went down herd immunity route until doing a sharp U Turn.
  7. Inconsistent and changing messages all the way through, meaning the public didnt buy into it fully.
  8. Allowed major sporting events to go ahead. Cheltenham a point in case 500,000 people from all over the country.
  9. Failed to instigate a working track & trace at the start and wasted millions. Other countries seemed to be able to instigate working systems. 
  10. Kept schools/universities open, saying "theres no indication of it spreading in schools" and Boris "I'll keep schools open regardless of the cost", he didnt say wether that was monetry cost or deaths.  Meanwhile specialists (so the scientists knew) on the radio were saying of course it spreads in schools and silently, as kids rarely show symptoms. Later schools were struggling to stay open due to lackof staff.

There are many others, but 10 will do.

From previous post
The closest country that is similar to the UK in population and population density is Vietnam total cases 1,549 total deaths 35. (If you believe the figures)

Whilst Vietnam didn't lock down totally. Months before the rest of the world acted, it brought in travel restrictions, closed the border with China, schools were closed for 6 months, anyone entering the country quarantine for 14 days, 40% of quarantined cases had the virus but were asymptomatic carriers. Any towns with Positive cases were locked down with no one allowed in or out until two weeks had passed with no confirmed cases.

It wasnt like this snuck up on us, it could be seen coming across the world like a tidal wave. Italy was the best warning but the UK Gov seemed to chose to ignore, stand on the beach and watch the wave coming, rather than running for high ground.

A short sharp lock down at the start, including locking borders and we would have been out of it in 3-6 months, it would have never got to the levels it has. People will say ah well easy to say that in hindsight, well it wasnt hinsight. Ive been saying it from the start, its just common sense, and Vietnam our closest comparison (land area and population density), did just that, locked down well in advance of other countries and achieved possibly the lowest death rate.

Others that have closed borders etc Australia, NZ have achieved the same, although not really compareable, due to population density being much lower.

 

 ooOOoo

 

 Dr Jennifer Dixon, Chief Executive of the Health Foundation, responding to data showing the death toll from COVID-19 has exceeded 100,000 people in the UK, said:

‘This is a tragic milestone, and our deepest sympathy goes out to all those who have lost friends and family to COVID-19.

‘The scene for the current crisis was set long before the virus arrived. There has clearly been a lack of long-term planning and horizon scanning — and the investment across government and public agencies needed to do this. Underinvestment in public services has been ignored, leading to staffing shortages in the NHS, an obviously inadequate system for social care and cuts to public health grants over the last decade. This, plus a bias in decision-making towards the short term, has meant the country was not prepared and has struggled to find the capacity needed to deal with a crisis of this magnitude.

‘Decisions and action to protect people in care homes was late and inadequate. Over a quarter of deaths took place in care homes.

‘There was poor appreciation of the skills available in local authorities to help develop a strong test and trace system. Instead the government relied heavily on private contractors, many selected quickly without normal due diligence to cost or value, and the system has struggled to meet its own targets.

‘The pandemic has severely tested governments around the world. The toll of 100,000 deaths in the UK rightly raises huge questions as to how the pandemic was managed. There will need to be full inquiry to make sure lessons are learned for the future. Crucially, this will need to consider the extent to which existing health and economic inequalities in the UK, compared with other developed nations, made our experience far worse.’

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/health-foundation-response-to-the-uk-covid-19-death-toll-exceeding-100000

 

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Tuesday, 26 January 2021

COVID ~ Sweden per capita is still better than in the UK


They should be with 1/12th of our population density. If a country could have pulled off no lockdowns Sweden should have been able to. However, they are currently doing U-Turns and now have the laws to allow a lockdown, if needed. They brought in face masks on public transport about 2 weeks ago, not that I totally agree with face masks, as they are not used correctly.

Sweden's population is 14% of ours

Population density is 8% of ours

UK 724/mi2

Swe 58/mi2

Their death rate is 11% of ours which is kind of on a par with us in comparison to the population.

However with their population density being so much lower and if not locking down was actually working that figure should be much lower.

Difficult to compare countries that are so far apart on population density.

One of the big differences is the swedes are more compliant to following rules, so whilst no lockdown was imposed, social distancing was advised and in the main followed ...try that here in the UK 😀 😀

The closest country that is similar to the UK in population and population density is Vietnam total cases 1,549 total deaths 35 (if you believe the figures)

Whilst Vietnam didn't lock down totally. Months before the rest of the world acted, it brought in travel restrictions, closed the border with China, schools were closed for 6 months, anyone entering the country quarantine for 14 days, 40% of quarantined cases had the virus but were asymptomatic carriers. Any towns with Positive cases were locked down with no one allowed in or out until two weeks had passed with no confirmed cases. 

We shall see how Sweden fairs in the next month but with their population density and the broadly compliant population they should be able to pull it off. But not comparable to the UK. 🙂
























Thursday, 30 April 2020

COVID-19 ~ Johnson and Trump The Incompetent Brothers

Prime Minister's Speech Greenwich, London 3rd February 2020

In case anyone was in any doubt of good old Boris Johnsons thinking prior to coronavirus hitting the UK. I suggest you take a look at the start of this speech made on the 3rd of February 2020.
“And when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational, to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage. Then at that moment humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange” - Boris Johnson
Johnson then goes on to tell us, or those that are concerned about what sort of trade deal the UK might end up with the USA, that they should grow up.

Well, it turned out that he was the one who needed to grow up, particularly after his "I shook hands with everyone" speech at a briefing a month later to the day.
"I was at a hospital the other night, where I think there was a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody! you'll be pleased to know and I continue to shake hands" ~ Boris Johnson 3rd March 2020
Inspirational and outstanding leadership in getting the message across....NOT.  This isn't leadership this is pure childish incompetence.

Yet people still say he's doing a good job, it beggars belief and is the same blind faith exhibited by those followers of Trump. A world leader that lurches from one idiotic statement to another and then claims he's misquoted or his other favourite "its fake news".

Strange that the two leaders who were prepared to sacrifice unknown numbers of the population are now facing seeing the biggest death totals.  The UK is not there yet, but slowly, day by day the UK is overtaking other countries in that area. Will we make number two?  Highly probable in the next few days but certainly in the next few weeks.

But the sheer incompetence of both Johnson and Trump does not remain to be seen it's on plain view.

It's not like coronavirus stealthily crept up on us, we had the warnings, it was plain to see. There was no surprise, it was obvious what was coming to all those with a mediocre of common sense.

Unfortunately, common sense seems to be low in both Johnson and Trump and it nearly cost Johnson his life, if we can believe that part of the saga.



The UK is currently 3rd in the dubious rankings of coronavirus deaths. We should have been lower, we were warned, we knew it was coming. Only the governments slow reaction has put us in what will be 2nd place in the next few days.



The government also failed to plan correctly and put in place stocks of non-perishables, like masks and gowns after the pandemic exercise in 2016, Exercise Cygnus.  The report has never been released, I wonder why?
Covid-19 strategies: Britain planned for herd immunity while Asia intended to contain virus
Britain had prepared for a herd immunity strategy to contain Covid-19, while other countries focused on enhanced testing capacity
Who got it right?

Well it's plain to see from the numbers that certainly the UK and the USA didn't, especially with the advanced warning both countries had. Asian countries have got off lightly with regard to deaths so it was possible.

There is one caveat to this.  Were the deaths enough to get near to herd immunity? Because for every death there are x number of people that have had it and had mild or no symptoms.

Have the deaths been enough to get near the 60-80% needed for herd immunity to work?  As we have no reliable test, or any reliable evidence, as yet, that if you've had it you get immunity. That remains to be seen when the 2nd wave comes. The 2nd wave in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed far more than the 1st wave.

So hold onto your hats, we could be in for a bumpy ride and with the likes of Johnson and Trump in charge what could possibly go wrong.....

LOTS!



UPDATE 06 May 2020
6 days after I posted this blog we surpassed Italy in deaths and the UK took on the sad crown of the country with the 2nd highest deaths in the world.

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Friday, 13 March 2020

UK and Coronavirus




Something kept bugging me about Boris Johnsons latest Coronavirus announcement.


China put in place the most Draconian methods but appear to have contained Corvid-19 with daily new cases now dropping right off, if the information is correct. However, while the rest of the world Zigs the UK has chosen to Zag, only time will tell whether that is sheer incompetency or a master stroke.

Personally I think we will get a massive rise of cases around the country the requisite time after the biggest sporting event the UK holds has finished, i.e. Cheltenham, half a million people in one place, Hmmmm.

It’s already hitting football managers, Players, sporting events around the world have been cancelled in an unprecedented way.

The UKs response meanwhile is for Boris to stand up and say “lots of loved ones are going to die, but in true British fashion, “We will get through this” 

On the podium as well was Sir Patrick Vallance Chief Scientific Adviser and Christopher Whitty Chief Medical Officer.  Who seemed to have conflicting opinion, Vallance said the worst case scenario 80% of population could get it and we could expect 1% deaths.  Whitty said there was no way of knowing how many might get it. Maybe they should be singing from same hymn sheet?

So let’s just take a look at their the worst case scenario.

80% of population of UK which is currently 67,779,093 = 54,223,274

Worst case scenario 54 million people could get it but these type of figures haven’t happened anywhere else in the world and china is tailing off.

1% deaths would be 542,232 again a figure not seen anywhere else or even remotely close, if we believe the figures being made public.

Assuming this worst case scenario is way above anything seen elsewhere let's go for a small 2% of their 80% worst case which is 1,084,465 infections.

1% of deaths would still be 10,844 still way above anything even China has seen, whose total deaths so far are 3,177.

So why say your using the best knowledge and scientific data of what has happened so far and tell everyone a worst case of 80% when that hasn’t happened anywhere in the world? Must be a reason, we are talking highly knowledgeable people here, with access to extensive data resources.

As they are obviously using modelling with data far better than my fag packet calculations and we know that no country is the same, it could be population density that pushes up our model in the UK.

So lets look at that.

49           United Kingdom                   724/mi²
70           Italy                                       520/mi²                204/mi² difference to UK             39.23%
80           China                                     384/mi²                340/mi² difference to UK             88.54%

The UK's population density is 88% greater than China, Wow really didn't know that and 39% greater than Italy.

So lets extrapolate that.

China cases 80,814 x 88% = 71,116 + 80,814 = 151,930 possible UK infections based on what were being told has happened in China and factoring in the UK being 88% more densely populated.

Lets try deaths in china and factor in the UK increased population density. 3,177 x 88%  = 2795 + 3177 = 5,972 possible UK Deaths

Still way higher than China even using low percentages and way below what the Governments suggesting even taking just 2% of their worst case scenario.  But population density certainly seems to make sense for the increased expectation for the UK.

So why is the government suggesting a worst case of 80% yes its a possibility but the evidence from other countries doesn't even come close.

Something is not right.


NOTE
Just a brain dump of my thoughts nothing more.


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