As predicted Eagle withdraws from leadership race

On the 13/7 I predicted that Angela Eagles would drop out of the Labour Party leadership challenge and today she does just that.  OK it wasn't quite as I predicted, she didn't bleat about bullying and threats as I expected. I did think when she pulled out they would pull something to try and damage Corbyn on the way out but I guess the brick NOT through her office window like she claimed, kind of scuppered that.

So that leaves Owen Smith as the main challenger?

That's the Owen Smith that became an MP just 6 years ago ...... More cannon fodder I suspect before the real challenger shows his hand?

Owen Smith was parachuted into the Labour safe seat of Pontypridd so that he could become an MP. So why was he bestowed that privilege.  I mean its the same thing they did for Cameron, parachuted him into a safe Tory seat in Oxfordshire so he could be set up to be PM and it looks like the same has been set up for Smith.

Meanwhile Corbyn has never been parachuted into anywhere, hes just won election after election in his own borough for over 30 years. You would have thought that if there was really something wrong with the man, over 30 years they would have cottoned on?  Just saying!

Now I have to say I dont know much about Owen Smith hes probably a nice bloke. He seems to have similar policies to Corbyn but Im having to make assumptions here because we only have since 2010 to go on. 6 years experience as an MP.

• In 30 years Corbyn has locked swords in the commons with many including Thatcher.
• Owen Smith was 12 when Corbyn was first elected as an MP
• Corbyn has been returned as MP 6 times by the voting public.
• Corbyn was returned as MP in 2010 with 60% of the votes 20% more than Owen Smith
• Corbyn was elected as leader with a massive majority of over 59% of the vote, the biggest in history.
• During Corbyns leadership the labour party membership has grown massively
• During Smiths time as an MP I can think of nothing that Im aware of him doing.

So is Owen Smith qualified to be leader and we are talking about leadership qualities here not just will he have the backing of the PLP. I have to say I have no idea, I don't know who he is, Ive not seen anything of him in the commons. I've not seen him enthuse tens of thousands of people to come out to hear him speak like Corbyn can and this is the crux of it for me.

Yes I understand that if the PLP wont work with him that's going to make life a tad difficult. Not insurmountable but difficult.

But to me those tens of thousands of people that are enthused by Corbyn go away from hearing him speak and even if they only talk to one person, thats another ten thousand people. If the 171 PLP go away and talk to just one person that's another 171, ill leave you to ponder the maths.

There's no evidence that I have seen that convinces me that Owen Smith is any better for the job than Corbyn. Corbyn can convince thousands to come and hear him speak. Something is going on there, so that's good enough for me. The ability to get thousands to attend and listen to your speeches is real leadership and a rare quality.

Islington North

 Parliamentary constituency

LAB HOLD

Results

• VOTES
• SHARE %
• + / - %

Labour

, with candidateJeremy Corbyn

, have the following results:

• 29,659total votes taken.
• 60.2% share of the total vote
• +5.8% change in share of the votes

Conservative

, with candidateAlex Burghart

, have the following results:

• 8,465total votes taken.
• 17.2% share of the total vote
• +3.0% change in share of the votes

Green Party

, with candidateCaroline Russell

, have the following results:

• 5,043total votes taken.
• 10.2% share of the total vote
• +7.2% change in share of the votes

Liberal Democrat

, with candidateJulian Gregory

, have the following results:

• 3,984total votes taken.
• 8.1% share of the total vote
• -18.6% change in share of the votes

UKIP

, with candidateGreg Clough

, have the following results:

• 1,971total votes taken.
• 4.0% share of the total vote
• +2.4% change in share of the votes

Socialist Party GB

, with candidateBill Martin

, have the following results:

• 112total votes taken.
• 0.2% share of the total vote
• +0.2% change in share of the votes

Change compared with 2010

Pontypridd

 Parliamentary constituency

LAB HOLD

Results

• VOTES
• SHARE %
• + / - %

Labour

, with candidateOwen Smith

, have the following results:

• 15,554total votes taken.
• 41.1% share of the total vote
• +2.3% change in share of the votes

Conservative

, with candidateAnn-Marie Mason

, have the following results:

• 6,569total votes taken.
• 17.3% share of the total vote
• +1.2% change in share of the votes

UKIP

, with candidateAndrew Tomkinson

, have the following results:

• 5,085total votes taken.
• 13.4% share of the total vote
• +10.1% change in share of the votes

Liberal Democrat

, with candidateMike Powell

, have the following results:

• 4,904total votes taken.
• 12.9% share of the total vote
• -18.2% change in share of the votes

Plaid Cymru

, with candidateOsian Lewis

, have the following results:

• 4,348total votes taken.
• 11.5% share of the total vote
• +4.2% change in share of the votes

Green Party

, with candidateKaty Clay

, have the following results:

• 992total votes taken.
• 2.6% share of the total vote
• +1.6% change in share of the votes

Socialist Labour Party

, with candidateDamien Biggs

, have the following results:

• 332total votes taken.
• 0.9% share of the total vote
• -0.4% change in share of the votes

TUSC

, with candidateEsther Pearson

, have the following results:

• 98total votes taken.
• 0.3% share of the total vote
• +0.3% change in share of the votes

Change compared with 2010

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/who-owen-smith-everything-you-8413993
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owen_Smith_(politician)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000763
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36838808

Is Boris an accident waiting to happen?

Over the years I've worked with many intelligent, some incredibly highly intelligent people. However I discovered a long time ago that there is no correlation between intelligence and common sense nor intelligence and diplomacy.

Boris Johnson's stumbling if not embarrassing performance at the french embassy would be funny if it wasn't so worrying. 

I can understand why Theresa May would give him the job of forign secretary, you started it you sort it out, but negotiating the exit of the UK for the EU is a massive job, possibly even bigger than that of PM. 

Is an intelligent buffoon the right man for the job? Personally I think he will not be able to get the best deal for the UK. 

He will lie through his back teeth, just as he did in the referendum and the public wont know what we are getting or not getting. But he will claim, whatever, that he's done an amazing job and got an amazing deal for the UK.

Unfortunately I fear the UK will suffer for years over this, while the EU sniggers behind closed doors.

Theresa May meanwhile will be able to distance herself from it claiming she put a Brexit in charge, what more could she do?

Angela Eagle on the ball about Boris

There's not much to say the video speaks for itself

Wouldn't surprise me if the brick thrower was part of Eagle's team.

Lol here we go as I said ..... " Unless the PLP can parachute a couple of hundred thousand registered supporters in. Its highly possible that Eagle will drop out and claim some form of bullying by the far left Trotsky, communist b'stards that are out to destroy the labour party. 

Eagle will drop out next in floods of tears due to bullying tactics, not that she's in the slightest a threat ....Leaving Smith to go up against Corbyn .... all planned. 

Wouldn't surprise me if the brick thrower was part of Eagles team. 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-suspends-local-party-meetings-8413263



UPDATE
And then later we find out that it wasn't even Eagles office, that was round the corner, with Labour Party posters in the window.

I quite admire the Tories

Hard to say but its true.

When the chips are down and everything is in meltdown the Tories all show a united front behind their leader.

Labour however all scheme behind the leaders back, resign and walk off. Leaving the elected leader out on a limb.

There is not much more to say about that is there .....

Media coverage of the EU Referendum

Its been often used as a negative against Corbyn that he didn't do enough media appearances. However he was actually the top appearing Labour party member, maybe people shouldn't believe all the lies. Here are the facts.

Lets just compare his challengers for position as leader

7

Jeremy Corbyn (Labour IN)

123

6.1%

30

Angela Eagle (Labour IN)

15

.7%

Owen Smith ..... Nowhere to be seen.

So we have Corbyn on 123 appearances and Eagle on 15 and Smith on well nothing. Yet corbyn is lambasted for not doing enough?  I would agree that he didnt do as much as the Conservatives, but then they had staked everything on the referendum and Cameron had told the EU he could deliver an IN vote.

However appearances didnt equal result the in crowd made 1294 appearances and the out crowd 1092 .....

Maybe the out crowd told bigger fibs? :-)

Section 2: Stopwatch Balance

This section examines which individuals, organisations and institutions received most media coverage. Table 2.1 identifies the ten most prominent politicians for the entire sample period.

Table 2.1: Top thirty media appearances (6 May – 22 June)

Position	Name	Number of appearances	Percentage of items in which they appeared
1	David Cameron (Conservative IN)	499	24.9%
2	Boris Johnson (Conservative OUT)	379	18.9%
3	George Osborne (Conservative IN)	230	11.5%
4	Nigel Farage (UKIP OUT)	182	9.1%
5	Michael Gove (Conservative OUT)	161	8.0%
6	Ian Duncan Smith (Conservative OUT)	124	6.2%
7	Jeremy Corbyn (Labour IN)	123	6.1%
8	Priti Patel (Conservative OUT)	65	3.2%
9	Gordon Brown (Labour IN)	52	2.6%
10	John Major (Conservative IN)	47	2.3%
11	Jacob Rees-Mogg (Conservative OUT)	35	1.7%
12=	Chris Grayling (Conservative OUT)	33	1.6%
12=	Gisela Stuart (Labour OUT)	33	1.6%
14=	Theresa May (Conservative IN)	29	1.4%
14=	Donald Tusk (President European Council IN)	29	1.4%
16	Nicola Sturgeon (SNP IN)	28	1.4%
17=	Bernard Jenkin (Conservative OUT)	24	1.2%
17=	Sadiq Khan (Labour IN)	24	1.2%
19	Liam Fox (Conservative OUT)	23	1.1%
20	Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the EC IN)	21	1.0%
21	Alistair Darling (Labour IN)	20	1.0%
22	Alan Johnson (Labour IN)	19	.9%
23=	Amber Rudd (Conservative IN)	18	.9%
23=	Ed Balls (Labour IN)	18	.9%
25=	Norman Lamont (Conservative OUT)	17	.8%
25=	Harriet Harman (Labour IN)	17	.8%
26=	Angela Merkel (Chancellor of Germany IN)	16	.8%
26=	Sarah Wollaston (Conservative OUT then IN)	16	.8%
26=	John McDonnell (Labour IN)	16	.8%
30	Angela Eagle (Labour IN)	15	.7%

Key findings

• Seven of the top ten people and half of all people in the top thirty are Conservative politicians. In all, they account for 73% of the total number of appearances in the top thirty.
• The most frequently reported Labour politician was Jeremy Corbyn (7^th). Only ten Labour politicians made the top thirty. They account for 15% of the total number of appearances in the top thirty.
• Only two representatives from other UK political parties made the list: Nigel Farage (4^th) and Nicola Sturgeon (16^th).
• No representative of the Liberal Democrats made the top thirty.
• The top seven people are all men.
• Nine of the thirty people are women, but only one woman (Priti Patel) made the top ten.
• Only three non-UK based people made the list: Donald Tusk (=14^th), Jean-Claude Juncker (20^th) and Angela Merkel (=26^th).
• Pro-IN politicians in the top thirty commanded slightly more appearances than pro-OUT politicians (1176 to 1070)

Sources

https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/eu-referendum/uk-news-coverage-2016-eu-referendum-report-5-6-may-22-june-2016/

Labour Leadership challenge Rule couldn't be clearer.

Chapter 4, Clause II, rule 2 B ii. “Where there is no vacancy, {nominations may be sought by potential challengers} each year prior to the annual session of party conference. In this case nominations must be supported by 20% of the Commons members of the PLP” ..........

I dont think it can be any clearer .....{nominations may be sought by potential challengers} Corbyn is not a challenger.

Farage goes to Tory body language consultant

I just noticed it recently but it seems Farage goes to the same idiotic body language consultant that the Tories do.

Do they actually realise how stupid they look?

Farage

Cameron

May

Johnson

Osbourne

Imagine a PM that cant be bought

In a recent discussion someone proposed the following thought on the Labour party situation;

"I suspect that the problem is that it is difficult to run the country and have extreme views either to the left or the right; it is possible that the Parliamentary Labour Party does not want a strongly leftist leader come the next election."

Its an interesting point and it got me thinking. By the time id written my thoughts in reply I had written a blog post, so its been converted to one.

The statement is probably true but that doesn't explain Cameron and co who are probably as far right as Thatcher was and who as we know, was deemed un-electable by her own party prior to 1979.

Why do the public vote for the rich getting richer. Is it some form of vague hope ... "That could be me one day", bit like buying a lottery ticket. 

Corbyn isn't the best leader, YET. I say yet because he hasn't been allowed to grow into the job. He was attacked from both sides from day one. We have to remember that he was elevated from back bench to leader, having never been near the front bench. It was always going to be a learning curve of at least 2 or 3 years and anyone who thinks he was going to be a brilliant leader in less times is looking for a robot. 

I don't agree with all his policies either, but then when do you find a party leader where you agree with everything. He is however the most principled and honest politician Ive come across.

Its actually a sad state of affairs when someone who proposes a valid anti austerity policy, building houses, renationalising important infrastructure so that the profits come to the country rather than share holders, proposes more honest politics (something thousands bought into and voted for him for), Is seen as far left.
He also promotes inclusion of views, having said many times that 1 person cant know everything. Hes only far left because the media portray him as such to throw everything at making him unpopular.

But why is everyone, the media, the Tories even his own party so afraid that he'll get into power?

After Brexit, Labour had the best opportunity to move streets ahead of the Tories in popularity, instead they, the PLP, decided to help the Tories and destroy the Labour party. I've been thinking about this and you could come up with many different scenarios. The only one that makes sense to me is that he's actually more principled than even I thought and he cant be bought.

Imaging a PM that couldn't be swayed by the powerful string pullers. That's what I think is going on here. The PLP are not stupid they are all career politicians. Its incredulous to think that they could make such a hash of a coup attempt and if I'm wrong then we really don't want them as politicians.

No i feel that someone or a group were pulling the PLP's stings. That entity was so arrogant that they thought Corbyn couldn't possibly be as principled as he is and that he would bow to the pressure of the few and disregard the masses.

They seriously misinterpreted the person and Corbyn's last play to offer an olive branch out to all those that resigned is sheer brilliance. In one move he has nullified their continuing calls for him to step down and increased his standing with the membership, who will surely vote him back in as leader should any challenger come forward.

This now goes beyond the person and is a fight for democracy.

The Labour party members do not want a dictatorship.

Additional note added after blog posted
Is there something more wide ranging about to come out in the Chilcot report that noone is aware of apart from the few? Maybe others from the PLP are implicated in wrong doing?

http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Inquiry
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/02/chilcot-iraq-inquiry-must-restore-public-trust-bush-blair-philippe-sands
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/blair-camp-readies-its-defence-to-chilcot-report

The PLP claim that Jeremy Corbyn should have done better in convincing the country to remain in the EU.

Lets keep it simple How Britain voted.

Conservative voters constituted just over three out of every ten remainers, and four in ten leavers.

Labour voters made up four in every ten remainers, and two in ten leavers.

Tories
Remain 42%  Leave 58%

Labour
Remain 63% Leave 37%

So Corbyn produced a better result than Cameron

Some of the PLP, ones that resigned could not even get their own constituents to vote remain, yet they blame Corbyn, WHY? 
They dont blame the Tories who engineered the vote, engineered the vote on the back of the biggest pack of lies ever seen.  How can anyone ever believe a word that Gove or any of the others say. How can we believe them when they report back from EU negotiations?

Now Im not getting into whether leave was best or remain would be better. Just focusing on what was said to create a vote one way or the other and which ever way you look at it, the leave campaign lied.

They say that Corbyn is weak and un-electable but for 9 months, we have seen one of the biggest media campaigns against a party leader ever. A campaign full of vitriol, misinformation and basically down right lies. WHY?
Just ask yourself that question WHY? Why would they go to all that trouble to try and vilify someone when that someone is weak and un-electable. It just doesn't make any sense, if he was that bad just leaving him alone and making no comment would have been better. He would have just faded away. Or is there something bigger going on?

Jeremy Corbyn promised supporters

"Straight talking, Honest politics"

And supporters, including me, bought into that joining up to the Labour party and electing Corbyn with the biggest mandate of a party leader ever. Yes Ever. He could have lost 30% of the vote and still won.

First round

Candidate		Party members		Registered supporters		Affiliated supporters		Total
		Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes		%
	Jeremy Corbyn	121,751	49.59%	88,449	83.76%	41,217	57.61%	251,417		59.5%
	Andy Burnham	55,698	22.69%	6,160	5.83%	18,604	26.00%	80,462		19.0%
	Yvette Cooper	54,470	22.18%	8,415	7.97%	9,043	12.64%	71,928		17.0%
	Liz Kendall	13,601	5.54%	2,574	2.44%	2,682	3.75%	18,857		4.5%

They say hes not a leader, well leaders come in all shapes and sizes and ways of leadership. One thing Corbyn isn't is a dictator and you could hardly expect a back bencher to be the perfect leader in under a year, probably not even 2 years. However I certainly didn't vote for someone I thought could win a general election the next Month, it was always a long term plan. 2020 would have been about right if Corbyn had been given the backing he should have, but he never got the backing.

What I did vote for was an immediate change to the punch and Judy style politics and Corbyn delivered 100% on that.

With the result of the brexit vote, the Tories were in disarray. Cameron had resigned and Labour could have surged ahead in popularity. So seeing that the Tories were in the frying pan, the PLP decide not to turn the heat up. They reached down helped the Tories out of the frying pan and jumped into the fire themselves, pulling the Labour party in with them. Why?

It has to be one of the most ridiculous decisions and badly orchestrated coup attempts in British history. It was badly thought out, badly planned, mistimed, and worst of all against the wishes of over 200,000 members that voted Corbyn in.  No attempt was made to win supporters over.

As career politicians they know that you ignore the vote at your peril, well boy did they mess up big. Exactly what and who's ridiculously stupid advise were they following when they went ahead?

Even then they couldn't follow party rules and went the route they thought it would be most damaging to Corbyn. No concern for the Labour party what so ever, just get Corbyn out at any cost.

To be frank if they are capable of making such a ridiculous decision, do we really want them in the Labour party, I say no, let them leave, there's the door, close it on the way out.

The problem now is, this is about democracy, if the members let the PLP push Corbyn out against his and their wishes, then the Labour party is no longer a democratic party its a dictatorship.

https://www.facebook.com/feniandwyer/videos/1207443815934981/

I don't actually see a way out of this, effectively the PLP with their mismanaged coup attempt and total disregard for members wishes have basically destroyed the Labour party as we know it.

1. If they push Corbyn out, thousands of members will leave the Labour party.
2. If they convince him to stand down now, thousands of members will leave the Labour party.
3. If they get someone to stand against him in a leadership contest, that person will, with a high probability fail, and noone has been very quick to come forward yet.
4. If they managed to get someone to stand against him and that person won in a democratic election, then there is a chance that more would stay. But its unlikely that anyone can beat him in an election.

Basically they are now working on starving him out, hoping that support will dwindle. I still predict that thousands of members will leave the Labour party if they do this.

I've learnt through life that No-one is indispensable, its obvious that the PLP feel that they are and can disregard members wishes with impunity.  

We shall see which phoenix rises again. 

The best thing the PLP could do now is put up a challenger, get this out of the way and pull behind the leader whoever that is and do it now while the Tories are still in fighting.

Straight talking, honest politics

“I was elected leader of the Labour Party, and I’m very honoured to hold that position, because of the support of ordinary people across the country.
“They came together in a spirit of optimism. No personal abuse, no personal slanging matches, just serious political ideas to improve the lives of ordinary people in Britain.
“I stand for justice, I stand for human rights, I stand for real opportunity for everyone.”
                                                                                                        Jeremy Corbyn

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-rebel-mps
https://thegreatcritique.wordpress.com/2016/06/29/new-labour-is-finished/
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/06/will-no-early-general-election/
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/hundreds-turn-out-back-jeremy-11556717
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/labour-party-infighting-complete-irrelevancy-generation
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right/