Mayhems last roll of the dice or a stitch up?

29th March 2017 and Theresa May triggered Article 50.

Its taken just over 2 years while she went off and negotiated what she thought Brexit was. Unfortunately it wasn't what all the other MP's, including MP's from her own party, thought Brexit was.

Its always the problem with vague sound bites like Brexit means Brexit ....it was always open to interpretation. It appealed to everyone because everyone thought they knew what it meant but it actually meant nothing to everyone, because its vagueness left it, a catch 22 almost.  But everyone still quotes it as if what their interpretation of it, is the right one.

Fast forward to tonight, the clock is running down the UK has until 12th April 2019 to propose a plan acceptable by all 27 members of the EU or it leaves with No Deal.

Mayhem has 10 Days to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Tonight May decides to "take action" and offers to sit down with the leader of the opposition.

"I'm offering to sit down with the Leader of the Opposition to try to agree a plan that we would both stick to, to ensure that we leave the European Union and that we do so with a deal.

Before we move on lets be clear why we are at this point.

1. May went off and negotiated on her own with very little accepted input from others.
2. Its very clear from the comments of Tory MP's that May has been nothing but intransigent, 2 Brexit Secretary's have resigned because of it. 
3. This offer of talking should have happened 18 months ago. Consensus should have been sort at the start so that whatever deal was negotiated had backing and could get through parliament.
4. While writing this I suddenly thought if the Tories wanted a fall guy to blame it doesn't come much better than May.

Soapbox opinion
Personally I think anyone sitting down to talk at this late stage needs to be very wary. There are very few avenues left and the opportunity to share the blame around a bit is high.  Is this the plan behind this last minute reaching out? A bit of slippery shoulder finger pointing?

In a nutshell

• We have 10 days until the 12th April, unless May can come up with a reason for the EU to extend.
• It would need to be a show stopping reason like another referendum or a General Election.
• There is only one deal on the table (May's deal) with the EU and they have said it wont be renegotiated.
• May's deal has already been voted down 3 times now.
• MP's have so far voted against every other proposal put before them.
• MP's have voted to avoid No Deal at all costs. (That's just advisory though and not enshrined in law)
• The EU has stated it wants to do all it can to avoid No Deal.
• However the EU has actually planned for No Deal unlike the UK who's plans are severely lacking and nowhere near complete.
• 12 April 2019 is also the deadline for informing the EU of the intention to hold MEP elections.
• Unless the UK leaves on or closely to the 12th it will be required to hold MEP elections.
• 23rd of May is when EU elections take place, 49 days time.

Lets look at possibilities

1. No Deal, its still the legal default if all else fails.
2. May's deal "The withdrawal agreement" is still the only deal on the table with the EU.
3. A long extension, UK would have to be holding a General Election or another Referendum to get such an extension and would have to take part in EU elections.
4. Revoking article 50, the UK can do this unilaterally. 
5. May could resign.
6. Other suggestions are some form of Customs union and or single market attachment. But surely if going for either of these we might as well stay in the EU. 

Soapbox opinion
I don't know where May is going with this at such a late stage, looks like nothing more than another attempt to get her deal over the line and/or dilute some of the blame away from the Tories. To me this smells of a stitch up.  Jeremy Corbyn you would be wise to be very careful, you could be being set up. I wouldn't trust her as far as I could throw her and with limited doors to walk through now, I feel the Tories are moving into damage limitation.


LINKS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_invocation_of_Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_State_for_Exiting_the_European_Union

Brexiteer's see their goal slipping through their fingers and switch

Another of my Facebook posts from earlier today

1. They will vote away the only negotiating card held today, by rejecting no deal Brexit.
2. Tomorrow they will vote to extend leaving the EU. Then there will be much debate as they try and figure out what would be a valid thing to tell the EU why they want to extend, and they wont be able to agree on anything.
3. On the 26th March Mayhem will have another vote on her deal and it'll be voted through as staunch Brexiteer's see their goal slipping through their fingers and switch to accept Mayhems deal.

The only hole in my prediction is that regardless what parliament vote No Deal is the default legal position and the Tories need the DUP to support their Government.

So rock and a hard place, if you can work this one out your doing well.

:-

I could be wrong 🤔😂😂

UPDATE: I noticed late last night that an MP in parliament was trying to bet someone £50 that there would be another vote on Mays deal on or around the 26th of March :-D

UPDATE: 20/03/19 19:30
Looks like my prediction could still be good, EU now saying UK can have a short extension if Mays deal is backed that's gonna put pressure on certain groups. Now I reckon May will put more pressure on by saying she'll resign if the deal isn't backed, that'll pile the pressure on those that don't want to risk a hard core Bexiteer getting in. All in my humble opinion of course :-D :-D
Oh I forgot to mention EU still have to agree to a tweak to the deal so it can be voted on since Bercow stopped it being voted on again without any changes. (apparently that's to do with an old law to stop PM bullying parliament by bringing things back again and again.)

May will probably win today's no confidence vote in the Conservative party. But at what cost?

I expect Mayhem will win todays no confidence vote in the Conservative party. But at what cost, what will the DUP want this time for their backing? Plus the Tories are unlikely to vote for a no confidence vote in themselves.

So where does that leave us.

May seems to have been pushing forward on a deal of her own making in some grand attempt at being the Savior of the UK and putting herself on a standing with Thatcher in the history books (Not that I hold Thatcher in that great esteem) a vanity project from the start.  It is one thing Tories are good at ...vanity.

So is she playing a very clever remain game or a very bad leave game.

Going against the mandate of the country would be a very dangerous thing to do for any PM but she was a remainer at the start.

2 years of convoluted negotiations, well wasn't 2 years because it took about a year and a half to decide what they wanted and the EU still doesn't seem to know. 3 brexit Secretary's later and we are still no nearer to starting to negotiate trade deals.

The mantra still at present is
My deal
No deal
Or no brexit

However at the start it was Brexit means Brexit.....whatever that means. Seems to mean whatever brexit I dream up.

As the house is definitely opposed to no deal that leaves only 2 so she could be playing a clever remain game. Hmmm!

Seems to me the EU keep saying tell us what you really want. By that I think they mean we don't want to know what Mayhem wants we want to know what parliament wants. All the indications are that they realise that mayhem is forging forward with what she wants so they are not prepared to negotiate any further.

A proper proposal backed by parliament I believe the EU would discuss. Personally I think Mayhem is lying when she says there is no further negotiation. Yes there is no further negotiation on her deal but a deal backed by parliament would be looked at.

As such I conclude that she's just playing a vanity game and play hero. Trying to get herself in the history books as another Thatcher, although the Tory knives soon came out for her. Corbyn's only route after such an epic fail had to be to call for a vote of no confidence. Everyone would have been putting the boot in if he diddnt, even though chances of winning were slim.

Personally I think there should be a GE as it would hand back power to the people. All parties can campaign on the detail of what they think Brexit should be or even no brexit and the people can vote on the detail.

Another referendum well what goes on the ballot paper? May's deal, no deal, remain? We already voted to leave... How many referendums should we have? Should there need to be a clear 60% majority next time? I think there should.

Nope a General Election is the best route in my humble opinion.

Update

Have to say I don't agree with Labour's stance that a no deal Brexit should be taken of the table before cross party talks. This is not the time to be taking away the only thing that might worry the EU in negotiations. Also May would agree to this if her plan was always to engineer some form of Remain, we wait and see.  I can see why its being asked for but its also going to have little impact on business now at this late stage, so keep it in the cards we are holding while we work out how to play them.

The Brexit - Choices in a nutshell, while Mayhem begs round the EU

The only thing Mayhem is going to get begging round Europe is possibly some reassurances and clarifications. That is not going to cut it in Parliament, the deal will not get through.

So we have some options and these options are based on the fact that we did have a democratic vote (don't necessarily agree with how that was run but that's another argument) and there was a small majority to leave, so respecting that decision......

1. Stop Brexit and stay in the EU, political suicide for any party, without a public vote
2. Extend article 51 time limit. With nothing else on offer pretty much a waste of time.
3. Take it back for a 2nd Referendum. Possible support growing for this due to impasse in Parliament. But where are we if the vote is the same? Right back in same position.
4. Take everything off the table and request to move forward on trade talks with no prerequisites, this is what should happen and what should have happened from the start. No deal with anything unless everything is in the deal. The problem with this is there is no time left now.
5. Crash out with No Deal. The less palatable option and everyone is running scared of it. Brexiteers say everything will be OK, Remainers say the world will come to an end. Who is right. Well no one knows as its never been done before.

The only thing I can say is you don't negotiate like this, but it is was it is and we move on from here and not from 2 years ago. I used to work in Project Management and its remarkable how solutions will be found when peoples backs are to the wall. 

Using that principle if we are to move forward with Brexit we have to take everything off the table and prepare for crashing out without a deal. We cant solve the Irish border problem. Nor will we put up a border, so let the EU solve that issue of how they check goods going into the EU ie across the Irish border.

If we think that a hard crash out Brexit is really going to be catastrophic for the country and if  Parliament stays at impasse, then we have to take it back to the country and let them decide.

Two choices in a nutshell

1. Crash out with No Deal
2. Take the Vote back to the people but the vote choices should be
1. Crash out no deal
2. Stay in EU
3. Go forward with Mayhems deal