Mayhems last roll of the dice or a stitch up?

29th March 2017 and Theresa May triggered Article 50.

Its taken just over 2 years while she went off and negotiated what she thought Brexit was. Unfortunately it wasn't what all the other MP's, including MP's from her own party, thought Brexit was.

Its always the problem with vague sound bites like Brexit means Brexit ....it was always open to interpretation. It appealed to everyone because everyone thought they knew what it meant but it actually meant nothing to everyone, because its vagueness left it, a catch 22 almost.  But everyone still quotes it as if what their interpretation of it, is the right one.

Fast forward to tonight, the clock is running down the UK has until 12th April 2019 to propose a plan acceptable by all 27 members of the EU or it leaves with No Deal.

Mayhem has 10 Days to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Tonight May decides to "take action" and offers to sit down with the leader of the opposition.

"I'm offering to sit down with the Leader of the Opposition to try to agree a plan that we would both stick to, to ensure that we leave the European Union and that we do so with a deal.

Before we move on lets be clear why we are at this point.

1. May went off and negotiated on her own with very little accepted input from others.
2. Its very clear from the comments of Tory MP's that May has been nothing but intransigent, 2 Brexit Secretary's have resigned because of it. 
3. This offer of talking should have happened 18 months ago. Consensus should have been sort at the start so that whatever deal was negotiated had backing and could get through parliament.
4. While writing this I suddenly thought if the Tories wanted a fall guy to blame it doesn't come much better than May.

Soapbox opinion
Personally I think anyone sitting down to talk at this late stage needs to be very wary. There are very few avenues left and the opportunity to share the blame around a bit is high.  Is this the plan behind this last minute reaching out? A bit of slippery shoulder finger pointing?

In a nutshell

• We have 10 days until the 12th April, unless May can come up with a reason for the EU to extend.
• It would need to be a show stopping reason like another referendum or a General Election.
• There is only one deal on the table (May's deal) with the EU and they have said it wont be renegotiated.
• May's deal has already been voted down 3 times now.
• MP's have so far voted against every other proposal put before them.
• MP's have voted to avoid No Deal at all costs. (That's just advisory though and not enshrined in law)
• The EU has stated it wants to do all it can to avoid No Deal.
• However the EU has actually planned for No Deal unlike the UK who's plans are severely lacking and nowhere near complete.
• 12 April 2019 is also the deadline for informing the EU of the intention to hold MEP elections.
• Unless the UK leaves on or closely to the 12th it will be required to hold MEP elections.
• 23rd of May is when EU elections take place, 49 days time.

Lets look at possibilities

1. No Deal, its still the legal default if all else fails.
2. May's deal "The withdrawal agreement" is still the only deal on the table with the EU.
3. A long extension, UK would have to be holding a General Election or another Referendum to get such an extension and would have to take part in EU elections.
4. Revoking article 50, the UK can do this unilaterally. 
5. May could resign.
6. Other suggestions are some form of Customs union and or single market attachment. But surely if going for either of these we might as well stay in the EU. 

Soapbox opinion
I don't know where May is going with this at such a late stage, looks like nothing more than another attempt to get her deal over the line and/or dilute some of the blame away from the Tories. To me this smells of a stitch up.  Jeremy Corbyn you would be wise to be very careful, you could be being set up. I wouldn't trust her as far as I could throw her and with limited doors to walk through now, I feel the Tories are moving into damage limitation.


LINKS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_invocation_of_Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_State_for_Exiting_the_European_Union