Covid-19 ~ Why coronavirus kills more old people than young - possibly

Why coronavirus kills more old people than young - possibly ... What about pre-existing conditions?

Well obviously pre-existing conditions I mean stands to reason doesn't it? But apart from pre-existing conditions, why does coronavirus kill more old people than young - possibly.

I was listening to a scientist on the radio the other day describing how Covid-19 which is part of the coronavirus family could be possibly fooling the immune system and making it think its a virus that the body has dealt with before, so it leaves it alone initially.

This could explain why the virus appears to affect older people worse than younger people and children. That's not to say that younger people and children don't get affected, they do. Just a lot lot less.

There are now 7 human coronaviruses.

4 common ones
229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

3 that cause more damage
MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)
The last on the list SARS-CoV-2 is the latest to join the club and its possible, but not proven yet, that it may have some, let's call it special stealth capabilities.

But the theory makes sense, well to me at least. There are plenty of links below for anyone interested in scientific names etc. I've tried to write this so I could understand it and therefore hopefully others.

So here's the theory
Over the years us oldens get exposed to all sorts of bugs, viruses, etc. Flu would kill a lot more people if we hadn't built up immunity to it over the years and we still need a vaccine.

The 4 common coronaviruses above we have also built up immunity to over many years. So our bodies in general recognise these coronaviruses. If they try and get in, the immune system checks them, goes oh right we know you, we already have some troops trained to deal with you, don't go away they'll be along in a second.

Now along comes SARS-CoV-2, looking very similar to the 4 common coronaviruses, so the immune system goes OK we know you, we'll send some troops we've already trained to deal with you. The normal response is not set off and the body doesn't make a specific set of troops to deal with the invading virus, it thinks it's already done it. But SARS-CoV-2 is not like the other coronaviruses.

SARS-CoV-2 carries on on its journey looking for cells to invade and is hit by all the troops the immune system has but they have no effect as they don't have the right tools to do the job. By the time the immune system realises its been duped SARS-CoV-2 has already got a hold and the specific troops being made now have a real battle on their hands.

This would explain why older people get it worse. The more of the 4 common coronaviruses we have had the easier it is for SARS-CoV-2 to sneak through.

Children and younger people however have had less exposure to the 4 common coronaviruses, maybe none at all. When SARS-CoV-2 wanders in, the body immediately makes a specific set of troops to fight it and the initial response is so very important is stopping SARS-CoV-2 from getting a foothold on the beaches. Which means you end up with mild symptoms.

Nothing is every 100% and yes children have died, maybe they had already had some of the 4 common coronaviruses, who knows.

As I said above none of this is proven concerning SARS-CoV-2.

Some viruses exist that do what is described above and SARS-CoV-2 could be one of them, time will tell I guess.

Obviously as already stated there are other things like preexisting conditions to consider. Mainly, but not exclusively in the elderly.





LINKS
How Some Viruses Protect Themselves From the Immune System's Efforts to Stop Infections
How Viruses Can Fool The Immune System
Virus tricks the immune system into ignoring bacterial infections
How herpes virus tricks the immune system
Human Coronavirus Types

UPDATED Recent Articles
Why Some People Get Sicker Than Others
Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes to Die

Covid-19 ~ Coronavirus Bill (HC Bill 122)

Coronavirus Bill (HC Bill 122)

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-01/0122/cbill_2019-20210122_en_4.htm#pt1-pb17-l1g43

Covid-19 - is not considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

And that's straight from the Government website

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK. 

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase. 

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID. 

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response. 

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.

List of high consequence infectious diseases
A list of HCIDs has been agreed by a joint Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England HCID Programme:

Contact HCID	Airborne HCID
Argentine haemorrhagic fever (Junin virus)	Andes virus infection (hantavirus)
Bolivian haemorrhagic fever (Machupo virus)	Avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1
Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF)	Avian influenza A H5N6 and H7N7
Ebola virus disease (EVD)	Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
Lassa fever	Monkeypox
Lujo virus disease	Nipah virus infection
Marburg virus disease (MVD)	Pneumonic plague (Yersinia pestis)
Severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome (SFTS)	Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)*

Covid-19 ~ How do we know its not man made?

Lots of rumours flying around and no doubt the Government will fan the flames of these to deflect from their own inadequacies in response to the epidemic.

However whilst nothing is ever 100% and this is so new that further data from research may bring a different light to it. But at present it would seem that it is unlikely that Covid-19 was constructed in a laboratory.


Here are some quotes from NatureMedicine, link to full document below
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

To the Editor — Since the first reports of novel pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, there has been considerable discussion on the origin of the causative virus, SARS-CoV-2 (also referred to as HCoV-19). Infections with SARS-CoV-2 are now widespread, and as of 11 March 2020, 121,564 cases have been confirmed in more than 110 countries, with 4,373 deaths. 

SARS-CoV-2 is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans; SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe disease, whereas HKU1, NL63, OC43 and 229E are associated with mild symptoms. Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data. We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.

Here are some quotes from Medical News Today, link to full document below
The new coronavirus was not man-made, study shows

The scientists found that the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein had evolved to target ACE2 so effectively that it could only have been the result of natural selection and not of genetic engineering. Furthermore, the molecular structure of the backbone of SARS-CoV-2 supported this finding. If scientists had engineered the new coronavirus purposely as a pathogen, explain the researchers, the starting point would likely have been the backbone of another virus in the coronavirus family.

However, the backbone of SARS-CoV-2 was very different than those of other coronaviruses and was most similar to related viruses in bats and pangolins.
“These two features of the virus — the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone — rule out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2,” explains Andersen. 

“By comparing the available genome sequence data for known coronavirus strains, we can firmly determine that SARS-CoV-2 originated through natural processes.”
– Kristian Andersen

LINKS
medicalnewstoday-The new coronavirus was not man-made, study shows
nature.com-The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
Laboratory-Acquired Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
sciencedaily-COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
patient.info-COVID-19: coronavirus myths debunked
forbes-No, COVID-19 Coronavirus Was Not Bioengineered. Here’s The Research That Debunks That Idea
techtimes-Studies Confirm Coronavirus is NOT Man-Made; Find Out How it Hijacks Your Cells
health24-New coronavirus is not man-made, new study confirms

Covid-19 ~ The UK response is A National Scandal

Offline: COVID-19 and the NHS—“a national scandal”
Copied from the Lancet,  © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Full article here
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1h9gfCYYdZSO_qFsR3WWc8I5MTGbDM6PnCC3m3iI0yylPNN4qVgck_iNs

“When this is all over, the NHS England board should resign in their entirety.” So wrote one National Health Service (NHS) health worker last weekend. The scale of anger and frustration is unprecedented, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the cause. The UK Government's Contain–Delay–Mitigate–Research strategy failed. It failed, in part, because ministers didn't follow WHO's advice to “test, test, test” every suspected case. They didn't isolate and quarantine. They didn't contact trace. These basic principles of public health and infectious disease control were ignored, for reasons that remain opaque. The UK now has a new plan—Suppress–Shield–Treat–Palliate. But this plan, agreed far too late in the course of the outbreak, has left the NHS wholly unprepared for the surge of severely and critically ill patients that will soon come.

                                    

                                                          oooOOooo

The NHS has been wholly unprepared for this pandemic. It's impossible to understand why. Based on their modelling of the Wuhan outbreak of COVID-19, Joseph Wu and his colleagues wrote in The Lancet on Jan 31, 2020: “On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic…for health protection within China and internationally…preparedness plans should be readied for deployment at short notice, including securing supply chains of pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies, and the necessary human resources to deal with the consequences of a global outbreak of this magnitude.” 

This warning wasn't made lightly. It should have been read by the Chief Medical Officer, the Chief Executive Officer of the NHS in England, and the Chief Scientific Adviser. They had a duty to immediately put the NHS and British public on high alert. February should have been used to expand coronavirus testing capacity, ensure the distribution of WHO-approved PPE, and establish training programmes and guidelines to protect NHS staff. They didn't take any of those actions. The result has been chaos and panic across the NHS. Patients will die unnecessarily. NHS staff will die unnecessarily. It is, indeed, as one health worker wrote last week, “a national scandal”. The gravity of that scandal has yet to be understood. 

Covid-19 ~ I think many people are missing the point of staying at home

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

I think many people are missing the point of staying at home and only going out for necessities.

Your not staying at home so you don't get coronavirus, your staying at home to delay getting it.

Your delaying getting it so that if your one of the unlucky ones that gets it bad and needs a hospital bed there will be one.

1. Many will have had it and not know.
2. Many will get it and only have mild symptoms.
3. Some will get Flu like symptoms.
4. Others will get drastic symptoms that requires hospitalisation to remain breathing.
5. Of those in group 4 some will have lasting effects if they survive.

Your staying at home so that if you or any of your Family or Friends end up needing a hospital bed there will be one.

At present we are not flattening the curve and are on the trajectory line which doubles every 3 days.

If that continues the UK will reach over 100,000 infections by 7th April 10 days time.

Stay at home protect your family.

Covid-19 ~ People may knock this man

Facebook post 28/03/20 

A psychopathic liar who is U turning and papering over the cracks of his parties failings over the last 10 years, that just to name 1 point, has led the UK to have one of the lowest levels of hospital beds in the whole of Europe. 

The overzealous cuts have cost this country billions as we play catch up, just as Thatcher did with the military cuts and the Falklands. Just got through that by the skin of our teeth and who saved us ....our amazing under equipped military.

So yeah thank god Corbyn isn't in charge we might have had hospital beds and a NHS that would have got their pay rise. 

Anyone going to say they are not worth it?

My further points are.

1. The UK's delay in responding has been heavily criticised by countries more experienced in dealing with Corvid-19 and the World Health Organisation.
2. We are the 5th or 6th richest economy in the world so the fact we have one of the lowest numbers of hospital beds in the whole of Europe is something people should be questioning not applauding. If Corvid-19 really takes off here a lot of people will die because of those decisions. So no I'm not prepared to let them off they are accountable for their decisions or should be.
3. The UK's herd immunity strategy was seriously flawed and quite why the scientists thought they could advise something different to what the rest of the world was doing is beyond me. If indeed they did advise that.
4. There are some claims that Cummings had a hand in promoting the herd immunity strategy. whether this is true or not remains to be seen. 

Dominic Cummings reportedly led the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic with a strategy that protected the economy and put the elderly at risk.
According to Sunday Times reports the unelected advisor pushed a discredited “herd immunity” response, saying the prerogative was to “protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad.”  

• The UK is scrambling to correct its coronavirus strategy 
• Professor Hugh Pennington: ‘Herd immunity is a crazy idea, not really supported by any sound science’ 
• Cummings role under scrutiny over delay to UK suppression policy
• Britain Drops Its Go-It-Alone Approach to Coronavirus

Other Links
How countries around the world are battling coronavirus

Covid-19 ~ Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus

Facebook post 27/03/20 

If he has it then I wish him well I wouldn't wish potential death on anyone ....however back to the If... 

Putting my devil's advocate hat on, In a time when the inadequacies of the current government decision are being spotlighted. The past tory government's decision to hack the NHS to pieces. One glaring piece of evidence of this is the 5th richest economy in the world has one on the lowest levels of hospital beds in all of Europe. That one thing will soon become glaringly obvious. So what better thing than to become a national hero and contract the virus.... a mild form...apparently. 

He can then recover and return to the forefront having battled on working, saving the country whilst having the Virus. What a hero people will proclaim. In fact they already are. 

The inadequacies are forgotten, the incompetence forgotten. Boris the hero stood outside the night before clapping the NHS when months before the baying mob of Tories applauded and cheered for voting down a pay rise for NHS workers. Just remember that. 

If you do have it fair enough but it doesn't wipe the slate clean.
#devilsadvocate

LINKS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791

Covid-19 ~ Did Nostradamus predict Covid-19

The short answer is NO

However ....


snopes - Did Nostradamus Predict the COVID-19 Pandemic?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1254867/Coronavirus-Nostradamus-prediction-COVID-19-latest-coronavirus-news

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1258546/Coronavirus-Nostradamus-prophecy-COVID-19-quatrain-false-prediction

Covid-19 ~ Coronavirus lifespan on surfaces

Note:  In COVID-19, ‘CO’ stands for ‘corona,’ ‘VI’ for ‘virus,’ and ‘D’ for disease

The virus is so new there is limited data available on it and research continues.


What is the viruses lifespan on surfaces?

Airbourne:         30 minutes to 3hrs
Cardboard:        24hrs
Stainless Steel:  2 days
Plastic:              3 days

How long does the virus last on clothes?

On clothing and other surfaces harder to disinfect, it is not yet clear how long the virus can survive.

As of 18th March 2020  "the virus's survival on natural fibres has only been tested on cardboard."

How long does it last in your hair?

There is not much data available on this but Elizabeth Ransom, chief physician executive at Baptist Health in Jacksonville said this...

"Ransom said she wouldn’t be particularly concerned about hair or skin elsewhere on the body carrying the virus, since they would rarely come into contact with infected surfaces. As long as you’re washing your hands frequently, continue twirling your tresses as you please."

“It could be in your hair, but it would be hard to imagine unless someone actively coughed and got droplets in your hair,” Ransom said. “The most common mechanism for transmission is related to hands, because we’re using them all the time, constantly touching things, and we aren’t even aware of it. Then we touch our faces all the time without even thinking about it.”

How is it spreading?

"Like many respiratory viruses, including flu, Covid-19 can be spread in tiny droplets released from the nose and mouth of an infected person as they cough. A single cough can produce up to 3,000 droplets. These particles can land on other people, clothing and surfaces around them, but some of the smaller particles can remain in the air. There is also some evidence that the virus is also shed for longer in faecal matter, so anyone not washing their hands thoroughly after visiting the toilet could contaminate anything they touch."

"The virus is most likely to spread from person to person through close contact and respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes that can land on a nearby person's mouth or nose, according to the CDC."

Isn't it the same as Flu?

No - In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.

Isn't it the same as SARS?

In comparison Covid-19 lasts about the same time on hard surfaces but three times longer on cardboard than SARS did: 24hrs, compared to eight hours.

Considerations.

Due to the lifespan of 24 hrs on cardboard and most things are delivered in boxes. Maybe you should think about quarantining deliveries for 24hrs before opening?

What about letters?

What about food deliveries?

What about packaging around food in shops that are possibly picked up and handled by many people?




LINKS
livescience-Here’s how long the coronavirus will last on surfaces, and how to disinfect those surfaces.
bbc-Covid-19: How long does the coronavirus last on surfaces?
foxnews-New study details lifespan of coronavirus in air, on surfaces
mirror-Doctor explains how long coronavirus can live on clothes - and shares washing advice
cdc.gov-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
businessinsider-The coronavirus lives on copper for 4 hours, on cardboard for 1 day, and on plastic for 3 days, new research says.
nejm-Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
huffingtonpost-How Long Does Coronavirus Live On Skin, Hair And Nails?
https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/wellness/a31789443/coronavirus-questions-answers-faq
 

Covid-19 ~ Italy's advise - Get Ready

The crisis gripping the town at the centre of the global COVID-19 crisis in Italy has been witnessed by Sky News' Chief Correspondent Stuart Ramsay.

We will wait and see how it pans out

UK currently 22/03/20
5,683  Cases
281     Deaths
93       Recovered

UK Current 29/03/20 (7 days later)
19,522 Cases
1,228   Deaths
135      Recovered

Covid-19 ~ To put things in a simplistic nutshell

1. The government has totally messed up the Coronavirus response and I mean really messed up.
2. They should have listened to WHO, and other countries that were way ahead of the UK in dealing with the virus, they didn't, they thought they knew better, they didn't.
3. Not responding when they should have will cost a lot of lives, we could have been ahead of the game. We are now on the back foot.
4. Cheltenham should never have gone ahead and will have been a catalyst for the explosion that is coming.
5. All the lies and misinformation that Boris Johnson has spouted during Brexit has led to people not believing him when he needed them to. In essence, the chickens came home to roost.
6. This is the long haul now don't go thinking that Pubs, clubs etc will be opening next month. This will be the end of the year or even next year and I have no idea how that will work.
7. There are two things that might change this, a cheap and easy test for Coronavirus or a vaccine. Can't see a vaccine being available till next year. Maybe an existing drug can be modified?
8. It's just like Flu - sorry no it's not do some proper research.  Coronavirus is twice as infectious as Flu.
9. Flu kills more people - at present, yes and we have immunity built up over years and vaccines for flu we have nothing for Coronavirus. Flu kills 0.1% of patients Covid-19 is over 10 times higher.  If Coronavirus infected as many people as flu does the death rates would be 10 times higher.
10. It only affects older people badly - Chinese study showed that there was 14.8% mortality among over 80s.  41% of serious cases occurred among under 50s and 27% over 65s.  You may be lucky if you get it and only have something mild or you may not its pot luck.
11. I addition they knew we had a higher population density than most and it would, therefore, spread more quickly, another reason they should have reacted sooner.

LINKS

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

No, Coronavirus Isn't 'Just Like The Flu'. Here Are The Very Important Differences

How The Novel Coronavirus And The Flu Are Alike ... And Different

New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic

telegraph-Data modelling suggests UK will suffer 20,000 coronavirus deaths

telegrap-UK coronavirus death toll of 20,000 'a good outcome', says chief scientific adviser

telegraph-The terrifying data behind the government's sudden coronavirus lockdown
‘For Unknown Reasons They Waited. And Watched’ – Lancet Editor Exposes Devastating Government Failure On Coronavirus

UPDATES
Graphic added 12/05/20

Drowned Migrants Coffins - Not Coronavirus victims

This picture of coffins is doing the rounds, but it's not coronavirus victims in italy.

It's actually a picture of drowned migrants coffins.

https://www.wfae.org/post/list-loss-newspaper-collects-tragic-tally-33293-dead-migrants#stream/0

Some 300 people died off the island of Lampedusa in a shipwreck southern Italy in 2013. Here, their coffins fill a large room as they wait to be moved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-29455555

The more fake stuff gets perpetuated the more people won't believe what they should believe.

We have enough problems with a PM, Boris Johnson, that has so far lied through his teeth about everything and anything and now people don't believe a word he says.  Lies have a habit of coming back to bit you in the ass and Johnson is finding that out now.

Noone is a expert in this, even the experts haven't got the answers and change their thinking on a daily basis because this is so new.  They are not even 100% certain that you cant get it again once you have had it. We can try and avoid spreading misinformation though.
The facts are OK on their own lets not distribute fake news.

Hospital beds, Staff, Doctors we just don't have enough.

We have 17,000 fewer NHS beds along with staff than we had in 2010 and the NHS was struggling before Covid-19 came along.
The effect of that is obvious in the current situation the NHS will get overwhelmed much sooner than it would have done.

We have the least amount of beds compared with any other country in the EU. The UK has about 2 beds per 1,000 people, Germany, by comparison, has 6.

https://www.ft.com/content/effd0dae-655f-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

We have fewer doctors than most other countries

https://www.ft.com/content/effd0dae-655f-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

The figures below were taken from data available at 22/03/20 00:06 GMT

The death rates in Germany are incredibly low, wonder why that is?

Italy
Coronavirus Cases = 53,578 Deaths = 4825 = 9%

Germany

Coronavirus Cases = 22,364 Deaths = 84 = 0.37%

UK

Coronavirus Cases = 5,015 Deaths = 233 = 4.64%

France
Coronavirus Cases = 14,459 Deaths = 562 = 3.88%


Cases in Italy passed the 100 mark reaching 157 on 23rd Feb 2020
Cases in Germany passed the 100 mark reaching 130 on 1st March 2020 Italy +8
Cases in the UK passed the 100 mark reaching 116 on 5th March 2020 Italy +12
Cases in France passed the 100 mark reaching 100 cases on 29th Feb 2020 Italy +6

We are approx 12 days behind Italy and if you go back 12 days on Italy figures they were at 9172 infections the UK is currently on 5,015 (4,157 fewer cases) so we are not matching Italy although this is unpredictable and we will run out of beds sooner.
We are approx 4 days behind Germany. If you go back 4 days on German figures they were at 9,367. Again we are not matching them with 4,352 fewer cases.
France reached 100 cases on Feb 29th so we are 5 days behind them. On March 15th France had 6,633 infections. This is closest to the UK but France still has 1,618 more infections.
Unfortunately, these figures don't show the true scale of what we are facing and I think we are about to find that out.
The long and the short of it is we don't have the hospital beds, staff, or doctors to cope.
Government policy to do the opposite of what the rest of the world was doing and WHO was recommending will cost a lot of lives.

Time will now tell, but this is a long-haul situation.


LINKS
bbc.- Have 17,000 NHS beds been cut in England?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Coronavirus test needed

Best thing Governments could do at present is to produce a quick easy test to see who in the population has already had Coronavirus.  Then those who have had it can carry on as normal and those that haven't can isolate.  This would save billions.


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic?

Covid-19 ~ if you were a government with an aging population

facebook

13 March at 23:18 · 

So if you were a government with an ageing population that you can't afford to pay the pensions for, a health service with not enough nurses because of your own policies. It would be a great idea to risk zigging when everyone else has zagged. Doing exactly the opposite of China where corvid-19 is now tailing off.

Blojo even blatantly admitted people are going to lose loved ones and the inference wasn't small numbers when the chief scientific officer is talking about 80% worst-case scenario. That's way way above what other countries are seeing. Even if you go at 2% your talking over 10,000 deaths way above China.

This strategy is a big gamble or is it.🤔...just saying.

#devilsadvocate

UK and Coronavirus

Something kept bugging me about Boris Johnsons latest Coronavirus announcement.

China put in place the most Draconian methods but appear to have contained Corvid-19 with daily new cases now dropping right off, if the information is correct. However, while the rest of the world Zigs the UK has chosen to Zag, only time will tell whether that is sheer incompetency or a master stroke.

Personally I think we will get a massive rise of cases around the country the requisite time after the biggest sporting event the UK holds has finished, i.e. Cheltenham, half a million people in one place, Hmmmm.

It’s already hitting football managers, Players, sporting events around the world have been cancelled in an unprecedented way.

The UKs response meanwhile is for Boris to stand up and say “lots of loved ones are going to die, but in true British fashion, “We will get through this” 

On the podium as well was Sir Patrick Vallance Chief Scientific Adviser and Christopher Whitty Chief Medical Officer.  Who seemed to have conflicting opinion, Vallance said the worst case scenario 80% of population could get it and we could expect 1% deaths.  Whitty said there was no way of knowing how many might get it. Maybe they should be singing from same hymn sheet?

So let’s just take a look at their the worst case scenario.

80% of population of UK which is currently 67,779,093 = 54,223,274

Worst case scenario 54 million people could get it but these type of figures haven’t happened anywhere else in the world and china is tailing off.

1% deaths would be 542,232 again a figure not seen anywhere else or even remotely close, if we believe the figures being made public.

Assuming this worst case scenario is way above anything seen elsewhere let's go for a small 2% of their 80% worst case which is 1,084,465 infections.

1% of deaths would still be 10,844 still way above anything even China has seen, whose total deaths so far are 3,177.

So why say your using the best knowledge and scientific data of what has happened so far and tell everyone a worst case of 80% when that hasn’t happened anywhere in the world? Must be a reason, we are talking highly knowledgeable people here, with access to extensive data resources.

As they are obviously using modelling with data far better than my fag packet calculations and we know that no country is the same, it could be population density that pushes up our model in the UK.

So lets look at that.

49           United Kingdom                   724/mi²

70           Italy                                       520/mi²                204/mi² difference to UK             39.23%

80           China                                     384/mi²                340/mi² difference to UK             88.54%

The UK's population density is 88% greater than China, Wow really didn't know that and 39% greater than Italy.

So lets extrapolate that.

China cases 80,814 x 88% = 71,116 + 80,814 = 151,930 possible UK infections based on what were being told has happened in China and factoring in the UK being 88% more densely populated.

Lets try deaths in china and factor in the UK increased population density. 3,177 x 88%  = 2795 + 3177 = 5,972 possible UK Deaths

Still way higher than China even using low percentages and way below what the Governments suggesting even taking just 2% of their worst case scenario.  But population density certainly seems to make sense for the increased expectation for the UK.

So why is the government suggesting a worst case of 80% yes its a possibility but the evidence from other countries doesn't even come close.

Something is not right.

NOTE

Just a brain dump of my thoughts nothing more.

LINKS

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/05/as-chris-whitty-provides-a-dose-of-reality-boris-is-just-an-annoying-distraction

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51862922/up-to-10000-in-uk-likely-to-have-coronavirus-chief-scientific-adviser