Friday 16 December 2016

Brexit trade deal could take 10 years


In my opinion it will be 20 years before we've finished dealing with Brexit fallout.  The UKs ambassador thinks it could take 10 years to get a trade deal sorted out. Theresa May however hasn't got a clue and successfully answers every question that wasn't asked and avoids the one that was asked.


Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's ambassador.

"Mayhem" (Theresa May) yet again successfully avoids answering the very clear and succinct question put to her. 








Links
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146


Tuesday 13 December 2016

Was the Falkands War Thatchers Gamble to save her skin

Whilst I take absolutely nothing away from British forces and their amazing undertaking to recapture the Falkland Islands. I still think it was nothing more than a gamble by Margaret Thatcher to secure another term as prime minister.

At the time she was one of the most unpopular prime ministers ever and was heading for a massive defeat, there were four major things that happened.
  1. The British ignored things that the Argentinian's were saying in the UN or hints that they were making about military action.
  2. John Nott withdrew the Endeavor which was the support ship for the Falklands.
  3. The British government brought in the British nationality act of 1981 which replaced the full British citizenship of Falkland islanders with the more limited version.
  4. Intelligence had been received that the Argentinian's might attempt something and Thatcher was advised to dispatch a small military force but refused to do so.
All these things lead the Argentinians to believe that Britain would not fight for the Falklands.

Also at the time, the Conservative government was cutting the military to shreds the 1981 defence white paper (titled "The UK Defence Programme: The Way Forward" Cmnd 8288) was a major review of the United Kingdom's defence policy brought about by the Conservative government under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. (Link)
"It was ultimately judged however to have been extremely detrimental to the Defense of the Realm, being among other things widely considered to have been one of the contributing factors that led to the outbreak of the Falklands War."

In fact, the defence cuts and the four points above ended up costing the country billions and continue to do so.

My only assumption of this, knowing that she was a very intelligent lady, was that she knew exactly what she was doing. She led Britain into a war to secure her Premiership, as we know she went from being the most unpopular p.m. to being the most popular after the war.

In retrospect in 1976 James Callaghan had sent a small military force to the South Atlantic called Operation Journeyman when Argentina landed 50 men on an unoccupied southern Thule that belonged to the South Sandwich Islands. "The flotilla led by nuclear-powered submarine HMS Dreadnaught was thought to have deterred a 1977 invasion."

We also have to take into account that the government had tried on two separate occasions to negotiate the Falklands away but had been thwarted by the islanders.

I actually had a conversation with Sandy Woodward who was Rear Admiral of the task force, he was a member of the Sailing Club I was also a member of. One of the few things he did say was that "it was very close at times, could have been a different story."

The Falklands War - The Untold Story (Full Documentary)

The telling quote in the documentary Major General Julian Thompson 
"there was a political need for a victory"
"Though you don't mind dying for queen and country you certainly don't contemplate dying for politicians"
"I shall win the war for these buggers and then I shall go."  


SOAPBOX SUMMARY
So on the whole the Conservative government had tried twice to negotiate the Falklands away, they withdrew the endeavour the support ship of the Falklands. They changed the citizenship of the Falkland islanders by bringing in the British nationality act of 1981 which replaced the full British citizenship of Falkland islanders with the more limited version and Thatcher refused to dispatch a limited force when they received intelligence that the Argentinian's might attempt something. If you were trying to get the Argentinian's to try something you couldn't have done much more.

Thatcher was also a most unpopular and failing PM, having increased unemployment by 50% to 3 million, after promising to reduce it during the 1979 election campaign and she badly needed something to save her.

In my opinion, the above makes Thatcher responsible for the deaths of all 255 of the valiant servicemen that went and solved a problem either caused by her governments total incompetence or created to save her as PM.

Funnily enough, the two carriers were being sold off due to the defence cuts mentioned above. Had Argentina waited for 8 months, the UK wouldn't have had any carriers and would have been unable to recover the Falklands militarily.

Those defence cuts cost the country billions more than they would have saved and continue to cost the country due to the additional military presence now required constantly at the Falklands.

Nott didn't resign because he was right, it was because either he had royally fcuked up or he fell on the sword because Thatcher fcuked up and someone else needed to take the blame.

No one person is entirely to blame as I've no doubt they all sat around a table and agreed it. However, the Thatcher Government is wholly to blame and I'd love to see someone argue against that statement.



LINKS
The Guardian - How Margaret Thatcher's Falklands gamble paid off
Wikipedia - Events leading to the Falklands War
Wikipedia - Margaret Thatcher
Telegraph - Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands War: doubts and fears in a far-off conflict that changed Britain
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3158/Margaret-Thatcher-19252013.aspx
Mercopress - Falklands war, a turning point for Margaret Thatcher’s image and political fortunes
The Iron Lady - THATCHER'S WAR - THE FALKLAND ISLANDS
Sky - Margaret Thatcher: Falklands Was Defining
http://www.redpepper.org.uk/1983-the-biggest-myth-in-labour-party-history/
Wikipedia - 1981 Defence White Paper
Wikipedia - Operation Journeyman
Voting Intention 1979-1983
bbc.co.uk - Secret Falklands fleet revealed
Guardian - UK held secret talks to cede sovereignty
Guardian - Thatcher was ready for Falkland Islands deal, National Archives papers show
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1982/apr/29/falkland-islands

Someone with a similar opinion to mine
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2nouud/why_did_margaret_thatcher_want_the_falklands_so/
http://alienatedleft.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/thatchers-falklands-war-got-hundreds.html



[Document was updated: 05/01/19]