Monday 13 April 2020

COVID-19 ~ Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus?


Well, no country is the same, so let's look at population density.

UK population density per Mi2             = 710
Germany population density per Mi2    = 603
Italy population density per Mi2            = 518
China population density per Mi2         = 377
France population density per Mi2        = 319
Spain population density per Mi2          = 241
USA  population density per Mi2          = 87
Brazil population density per Mi2         = 64
Sweden population density per Mi2      = 60

Swedens population density is far less than the UK's, in fact, its the lowest of all those listed above.  Obviously, this figure is purely based on landmass and they may well have highly populated cities but I don't think so.

Sweden is also 1.9 times bigger than the UK. 54.5 million fewer people live in Sweden compared to the UK.

Swedes comply to rules and regulations better and are dealing with self-regulation better. Something that didn't happen in the UK. Mainly I believe due to inconsistent messages given out by the Government with Boris Johnson claiming "I'm still shaking everyone's hand" a good example as the Chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty winced by his side and could only respond "wash your hands" as advise.

Brazil is also going down this route but mainly because the President thinks its just Flu. So all the scientific data being thrown out the window there, at least the Swedes are working on the scientific data.

It's not like flu, Flu has been around for hundreds of years we have gradually built up immunity to it and we have a vaccine. Even so Flu still kills lots of people.

We have no immunity at all to coronavirus, we have no vaccine and the infection rate is 3 times higher than flu. It's as simple as that.

However, we can only get immunity by catching it or if a vaccine is produced. The trick is catching it when the NHS isn't overwhelmed by lots of patients if you are unlucky and need an ICU bed. There's no telling who will get it bad and who won't so Russian roulette.


So yes going back to Sweden, in my opinion, it just makes sense that it may well work in Sweden with their compliance to self-regulation and much, much lower population density.



Update 02/05/20
WHO Declares Sweden's COVID Response a Model for the World
It should be noted that the actual wording from the WHO was "potential “model” for battling the COVID-19.  Also, be that although Swedens death rate appears low, due to population density, it's one of the 10 highest in the world with a high mortality rate in care homes.
As noted above Swedens population density is far far less than the UK's, so not really comparable.
Johnson was indeed going down the same route until the realisation hit that in the UK the NHS would have been quickly overwhelmed and the death rates could have hit levels not worth thinking about. This would have highlighted even more the failings that have happened and possibly Johnson being no more. A complete U-turn was taken from the herd immunity route, basically to save his job and the Tories. He wasn't to know at that point that it would possibly save his life.
It should
However, back to the Sweden model, I think it's valid as a model for coming out of the stay at home policy now the 1st wave has been contained and people are a bit more mindful that it's not just Flu.


LINKS
Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Whitty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density
'I shook hands with everybody,' says Boris Johnson weeks before coronavirus diagnosis
https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_sweden_goes_it_alone_the_eus_coronavirus_exception
https://inews.co.uk/news/sweden-coronavirus-no-lockdown-covid-19-measures-cases-deaths-social-distancing-restaurants-open-2517991
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-asks-people-to-stay-apart-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
Updated 02/05/20
Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective
WHO Official: Sweden’s Policy of Individual Responsibility “a Model” for the Rest of World
Has Sweden's coronavirus strategy played into the hands of nationalists?
Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story
What we can learn from Sweden's approach to COVID-19: WHO coronavirus briefing
Updated 16/05/20
Americans calling for herd immunity should look at Sweden's coronavirus experiment to see why it won't work

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