Gary's Soapbox: 2025

Monday, 14 April 2025

Lev Parnas, Russian Interference in Elections, and Trump & Bondi - Russia Ties

Lev Parnas, Russian Disinformation, and Allegations of Trump & Bondi - Russia Ties

1. Introduction

This report compiles verified information surrounding Lev Parnas' testimony, the dissemination of Russian disinformation targeting Joe Biden, and the broader context of Donald Trump's connections to Russia through political, financial, and intelligence lenses. It covers events from 2016 to 2024, incorporating findings from U.S. intelligence agencies, congressional hearings, and whistleblower testimony.

2. Lev Parnas' Testimony

Lev Parnas, a Ukrainian-American businessman and former associate of Rudy Giuliani, provided public testimony before the House Oversight Committee on March 20, 2024. His testimony included the following key points:

He and Giuliani were tasked with investigating the Bidens' activities in Ukraine, particularly related to Hunter Biden’s board membership at Burisma Holdings.
Despite extensive efforts, they found no evidence of wrongdoing by Joe or Hunter Biden.
Parnas asserted that these allegations were part of a disinformation campaign orchestrated by Russian intelligence, particularly through Ukrainian proxy Andrii Derkach.
He stated that Republican members of Congress knowingly promoted Kremlin-backed narratives.
He detailed meetings with Pam Bondi in 2018 and 2019, noting her role in spreading these allegations during Trump’s impeachment defence.

3. Russian Disinformation Campaigns (2016–2024)

The U.S. intelligence community has consistently confirmed Russia's attempts to interfere in U.S. elections:

2016 Election:

Russian operatives hacked DNC emails and released them via WikiLeaks to harm Hillary Clinton's campaign.
The Internet Research Agency (IRA) conducted massive social media disinformation operations favouring Trump.

2019–2020:

Russian-linked Ukrainian politician Andrii Derkach pushed false corruption narratives about the Bidens.
These were amplified by U.S. conservative media and allies of Trump, including Rudy Giuliani.
The Department of Treasury sanctioned Derkach in 2020 as a Russian agent.

2024 Developments:

Intelligence officials warned Congress that Russian disinformation targeting Joe Biden was still active.
Lev Parnas’ 2024 testimony corroborated these warnings with firsthand accounts.

4. Pam Bondi's Involvement

Pam Bondi, former Florida Attorney General, played a high-profile role during Trump’s first impeachment trial (2020):

She presented a case alleging Biden family corruption tied to Burisma.
These claims originated largely from Giuliani’s sources in Ukraine, including Derkach.
Parnas testified that Bondi met with him and others to coordinate messaging.
Her presentation has since been discredited by multiple fact-checking organisations and intelligence assessments.

Possibility of Being a Russian Asset:

While there is no verified evidence that Pam Bondi is a Russian asset, her role in amplifying Kremlin-originated disinformation has prompted scrutiny. Intelligence terminology distinguishes between "witting assets" (those knowingly cooperating), "unwitting assets" (those being manipulated), and "useful idiots" (those unintentionally aiding foreign interests). Bondi’s use of materials originating from sanctioned Russian agent Andrii Derkach falls within the scope of unintentional amplification of hostile narratives.

U.S. intelligence and congressional reports have documented Russia’s strategy of exploiting American public figures to spread disinformation.
Bondi’s role in Trump’s defence relied on content identified by the intelligence community as originating from Russian-backed sources.
Lev Parnas’ testimony confirmed she was directly involved in meetings that helped shape the narrative later debunked as disinformation.

There is no public evidence of financial links, direct communication with Russian intelligence, or any indication that Bondi knowingly promoted foreign propaganda. However, her involvement serves as a textbook example of how disinformation can be legitimised through political channels without the subject being a witting collaborator.

As noted in the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee’s bipartisan report (Vol. 5, August 2020): “Russian intelligence services sought to launder influence narratives through prominent U.S. persons, including media figures and political allies.” Intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance wrote in The Plot to Betray America that this tactic, which relies on "unwitting agents,” is one of the most effective methods used by Russian operatives. Former FBI counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok also stated in a 2021 interview, "The line between a useful idiot and an asset isn’t always clear — especially when the disinformation comes through familiar political channels.”

5. Key Events Connecting Trump to Russia

a. Helsinki Summit (2018):

Trump publicly sided with Vladimir Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies regarding Russian interference.
Intelligence analysts considered this one of the clearest signs of his alignment with Russian interests.

b. Military Aid to Ukraine (2019):

Trump withheld $391 million in military aid to Ukraine.
The goal was to pressure President Zelensky to announce an investigation into the Bidens.
This became the central issue in Trump’s first impeachment.

c. White House Meeting with Russians (2017):

Trump hosted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak one day after firing FBI Director James Comey.
He reportedly disclosed classified intelligence during the meeting. The information reportedly came from a close U.S. ally (later confirmed by multiple media outlets to be Israel) and related to ISIS activities in Syria. Intelligence officials were alarmed because the disclosure could potentially compromise a valuable intelligence source and strain relations with the ally who provided it. The Washington Post and other credible outlets reported that this breach was serious enough to prompt emergency communications between intelligence agencies to mitigate any fallout. Former and current U.S. officials expressed concern that such disclosures could damage international intelligence-sharing relationships.

d. Undermining NATO:

Trump repeatedly questioned the value of NATO and threatened to withdraw.
This aligned directly with longstanding Russian strategic goals.

e. Promoting Kremlin Disinformation:

Trump suggested Ukraine—not Russia—interfered in 2016, a theory traced back to Russian propaganda.
He also promoted Derkach’s materials via Giuliani and conservative media outlets.

6. Deutsche Bank Loans and Russian Money

Trump’s relationship with Deutsche Bank raises serious questions:

After multiple bankruptcies, Trump’s organisation was largely blacklisted by major U.S. banks.
Deutsche Bank lent him over $2 billion despite red flags.
Whistleblowers at the bank flagged suspicious transactions, some of which may have involved Russian entities.
The bank was fined hundreds of millions for laundering Russian money.
Congressional efforts to investigate Trump’s finances were hindered by legal obstacles and non-cooperation.

7. Intelligence and Expert Opinions: Asset or Useful Idiot?

Intelligence and counterintelligence experts remain divided:

Asset Theory: Some suspect kompromat (e.g., financial leverage, personal scandals) may have made Trump susceptible to Russian influence.
Useful Idiot Theory: Others argue Trump’s behaviour was not coordinated but opportunistically exploited by Russia due to his impulsiveness, self-interest, and tendency to sow chaos.
Peter Strzok (ex-FBI) and Malcolm Nance (intel analyst) have both suggested that Trump represents a long-term national security vulnerability.

8. Conclusion

Lev Parnas' sworn testimony, the findings of multiple U.S. intelligence agencies, and investigative journalism provide a credible basis for asserting that:

The Biden-Burisma corruption narrative was a product of Russian disinformation.
Trump and his allies actively promoted these narratives, wittingly or not.
Trump's policy choices and public statements consistently aligned with Russian interests.
Financial and political ties to Russia remain under-examined due to obstructed investigations.

While definitive evidence of Trump being a controlled foreign asset has not been made public, the body of circumstantial evidence paints a picture of a U.S. president who either knowingly or unknowingly aided an adversarial nation’s strategic goals.

Appendices:

A: Timeline of Key Events (2016–2024)

2016: Russian interference targets U.S. election; DNC emails released.
2017: Trump meets with Lavrov and Kislyak; leaks classified intel.
2018: Trump sides with Putin in Helsinki over U.S. intelligence.
2019: Trump withholds Ukraine aid; seeks investigation into Bidens.
2020: Treasury sanctions Derkach; Bondi defends Trump in impeachment trial.
2021–2023: Ongoing investigations into Trump finances and Russia ties.
2024: Lev Parnas testifies; confirms disinformation campaign origins.

B: Key Intelligence Reports and Sanctions Lists

ODNI Report on 2016 Election Interference (Jan 2017)
Mueller Report (2019)
Senate Intelligence Committee Volume 5 Report (2020)
Treasury Dept. Sanctions on Derkach and other Russian agents (2020)
Annual Threat Assessments (2021–2024)

C: Excerpts from Parnas' Testimony

“At no point did we find any actual evidence of Biden corruption.”
“Giuliani’s team was fed information by Russian-aligned Ukrainians.”
“Bondi met with us in 2019 to coordinate the messaging.”

D: Senate Intelligence Committee Report (2020) Summary

Volume 5 confirms Russia interfered to benefit Trump.
Identifies Andrii Derkach as a Russian intelligence asset.
Highlights attempts to launder disinformation through U.S. political allies.

E: Treasury Sanctions on Russian Agents

Andrii Derkach: Sanctioned under Executive Order 13848.
Entities and individuals linked to GRU and FSB cyber units.
2020 sanctions list includes media fronts used for influence operations.

F: Deutsche Bank Fine Details and Whistleblower Memos

2017–2020: Deutsche Bank fined over $600 million for Russian laundering violations.
Whistleblowers flagged Trump-linked transactions as suspicious.
Internal reports suppressed; whistleblower complaints leaked to media.

Sunday, 13 April 2025

The Myth Behind The Art of the Deal: How Trump’s Ghostwriter Came to Regret It All

The Myth Behind The Art of the Deal: How Trump’s Ghostwriter Came to Regret It All

Why the man who made Donald Trump look like a genius now calls the book a “work of fiction” — and a dangerous one at that.

In 1987, The Art of the Deal catapulted Donald Trump from flashy New York developer to national business icon. With its brash tone and tales of bold dealmaking, it cemented the myth of Trump as the ultimate tycoon — a man with the golden touch, unafraid to speak his mind and take big risks. But behind the scenes, that story wasn’t written by Trump himself. It was crafted by journalist Tony Schwartz, who now says the myth he created is not just misleading — it's dangerous.

Schwartz, who spent 18 months as Trump’s ghostwriter, now says the book is more fiction than fact. “I put lipstick on a pig,” he admitted in a 2016 interview with The New Yorker. He describes his role in creating Trump’s public image as “something I’ll carry with me until the end of my life.”

A Myth Made for Television

At the time, The Art of the Deal was a publishing sensation. It spent 48 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list and made Trump a household name. Years later, it would become the foundation for The Apprentice — the reality TV show that propelled Trump into the living rooms (and psyches) of millions of Americans.

But behind the glossy cover and oversized claims was a very different story. According to Schwartz, Trump barely contributed to the writing process. He was uninterested in deep reflection, couldn’t concentrate for more than a few minutes at a time, and often couldn’t recall basic details of his own life. In desperation, Schwartz resorted to following Trump around his office, eavesdropping on his phone calls just to gather usable material.

What he discovered during that time was unsettling: Trump’s entire public persona was a carefully crafted performance, built on exaggeration, manipulation, and strategic dishonesty.

“Lying Is Second Nature to Him”

Schwartz says that Trump routinely lied about his finances, the details of his business deals, and even his own past. “More than anyone I have ever met,” he said, “Trump has the ability to convince himself that whatever he is saying at any given moment is true — or at least ought to be true.” The ghostwriter said Trump had a “complete lack of conscience” about misleading people and that most of the deals he boasted about in the book were either inflated or completely misrepresented.

One such example: Trump bragged about tricking Holiday Inn into a casino deal by staging a fake construction frenzy. Schwartz later learned that the story was vastly exaggerated — and possibly fictional.

Trump’s own publisher, former Random House head Howard Kaminsky, later laughed at Trump’s claims that he wrote the book himself, saying, “Trump didn’t write a postcard for us.”

A Self-Made Man? Not Quite.

Another central theme of the book — that Trump was a self-made success — has since been debunked by extensive investigative reporting. While The Art of the Deal gives a passing nod to his father Fred, it omits the crucial fact that Fred Trump’s political connections, financial guarantees, and direct cash infusions were essential to Donald’s early career. In fact, Trump’s first big Manhattan development deal was only possible because his father co-signed the loans and lined up favourable tax breaks through city officials.

As journalist Wayne Barrett later put it, “The notion that he’s a self-made man is a joke. But I guess they couldn’t call the book The Art of My Father’s Deals.”

Behind the Curtain: Narcissism, Superficiality, and Chaos

During their time together, Schwartz says he never saw Trump read a book or show interest in learning. “He has no attention span,” Schwartz said, adding that Trump’s world revolved around “money, praise, and celebrity.” He noted that Trump’s office was more like a stage than a workplace, where everything was designed to impress visitors and dominate headlines.

The idea that Trump hides a more thoughtful, nuanced version of himself off-camera? “There isn’t,” Schwartz insists. “There is no private Trump.”

He kept a journal while writing the book, noting how exhausting and “deadening” it was to spend time with Trump. The experience left him feeling hollow, eventually prompting him to leave ghostwriting altogether and write a book about the search for meaning in life.

A Warning Too Late?

By the time Trump launched his presidential campaign in 2015, Schwartz felt that the fictional persona he had helped construct had become dangerously real. When Trump proudly declared at his campaign launch, “We need a leader that wrote The Art of the Deal,” Schwartz was stunned — not just by the lie, but by how easily it was accepted.

“If he could lie about that on Day One,” he thought, “he is likely to lie about anything.”

Trump went on to tell voters that he never fails, that he’s the ultimate negotiator, that he wrote the best business book of all time. And people believed him — many still do. But Schwartz says they shouldn’t. Nearly every claim in The Art of the Deal was inflated, spun, or strategically edited. “I created a character far more winning than Trump actually is,” he said. “The truth is, I made him look better than he was. Much better.”

A Work of Fiction, Not a Manual for Success

Looking back, Schwartz no longer sees The Art of the Deal as a business memoir. He sees it as a piece of propaganda — one that helped unleash a man he now considers pathologically self-centred and deeply unfit for office.

In truth, the book is a masterclass in marketing, not dealmaking. It constructs an image, sells a persona, and disguises fiction as fact. Beyond a few insights into Trump’s personality — most of them troubling — the book offers little of genuine value. In Schwartz’s own words: “I created a myth. And I regret it deeply.”

Anyone who still believes The Art of the Deal as a serious guide to business or leadership is, frankly, being taken in by that myth. To all intents and purposes — apart from the truths about Trump’s character — it is a work of fiction. And taking it seriously is a mistake.

Original reporting by Jane Mayer in The New Yorker, 18 July 2016.
Read the full article here: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all
Main Article Written by Jane Mayer, Chief Washington Correspondent at The New Yorker.

Trump’s Influence Over Judges, Corporations, the Media and similarities with Germany 1932

Section 1: Judicial Influence and Targeting

Public Attacks on Judges

While U.S. presidents cannot unilaterally remove federal judges, Donald Trump has routinely undermined judicial independence by launching public attacks on judges whose rulings oppose his political goals.

Notable Example:

Judge James Boasberg (U.S. District Judge)
- In 2025, Trump called for Boasberg's impeachment after a ruling that blocked a mass deportation initiative.
- This move prompted a rare public rebuke from Chief Justice John Roberts, who reiterated the importance of judicial independence.

This approach has been part of a broader pattern of delegitimising courts and judges, often framing them as politically biased or corrupt.

Section 2: Economic Pressure via Tariffs

Strategic Use of Tariffs

Trump has used tariffs not only for trade negotiation but as a tool to pressure corporations into compliance or to curry favour by offering selective exemptions.

Tariff Examples:

China Tariff Hikes (2025):
- Tariffs on Chinese imports were increased from 20% to 145%.
- Heavily impacted importers such as Learning Resources, which saw an increase in annual tariff bills from $2.3 million to over $100 million.
- Exemptions were selectively applied to certain goods like electronics, benefiting companies such as Apple.

Legal Pushback:

Simplified (Florida-based stationery company):
- Reported $1.2 million in additional costs due to tariffs.
- CEO Emily Ley has sued Trump, alleging misuse of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

These actions indicate that Trump's tariff policy was often used to bring businesses "to heel," using economic leverage as political capital.

Section 3: Influence Over Media and Reporters

Undermining and Shaping the Media

Trump's media strategy has included aggressive attacks on mainstream outlets, efforts to bypass traditional platforms, and selective cultivation of media allies.

Examples of Media Influence:

Fox News:
- While generally supportive, Trump has attacked the network when coverage has not aligned with his messaging.
- Despite tensions, Fox News continues to serve as a major platform for Trump-aligned narratives.
Truth Social:
- Launched by Trump to bypass traditional media and directly communicate with supporters.
- Despite financial losses, it remains a core part of his media ecosystem.

Delegitimising Independent Journalism:

Trump has frequently referred to journalists as the "enemy of the people."
Reporters from CNN, NBC, and others have been publicly targeted, leading to real-world harassment and threats.

These efforts aim to create a loyalty-based media environment, where dissent is discredited, and favourable coverage is rewarded.

Section 4: Parallels with Germany 1932

While Trump is not Hitler and the U.S. is not Weimar Germany, historians note key thematic similarities between Trump's tactics and conditions in Germany leading up to Hitler's rise in 1933.

Key Parallels:

Theme	Germany 1932	Trump Era
Populism & Nationalism	Nazis exploited German nationalism and resentment from WWI	Trump promoted "America First" and blamed immigrants and globalists
Scapegoating & Division	Jews and Communists blamed for Germany's decline	Immigrants, Democrats, and media blamed for U.S. problems
Attack on Free Press	Independent media dismantled, propaganda centralised	Trump repeatedly attacked media as "fake news" and the "enemy of the people"
Delegitimising Elections	Nazis claimed system was rigged; used crisis to seize power	Trump repeatedly claimed elections were stolen and sought to overturn results
Control & Loyalty	Hitler demanded loyalty from all institutions	Trump attacked judges, DOJ, and military officials who opposed him

While the outcomes differ, these similarities show how democratic erosion can occur incrementally through pressure, manipulation, and the undermining of institutional trust.

Conclusion

Donald Trump's actions in targeting judges, leveraging tariffs to pressure companies, and shaping media narratives demonstrate a consistent pattern of consolidating influence through public pressure, economic manipulation, and institutional undermining. While not resulting in full authoritarian control, these tactics mirror historical authoritarian strategies and continue to have lasting implications on democratic norms and institutional trust.

Saturday, 12 April 2025

China warns Trump he's becoming an 'international joke'

So China warns Trump he's becoming an 'international joke'

Very simple one this

I would question China's use of the word 'Becoming'

He is an international Joke and has made the USA an international joke. If it wasn't so scary having such an absolute megalomaniac, narcissistic, egotistical idiot in charge, then we could just let the USA get on with it.

Unfortunately, this is exactly how wars are started.

Thursday, 10 April 2025

Trump Market Manipulation and S&P 500 Performance

Evidence of Trump Market Manipulation and S&P 500 Performance

This section provides a comprehensive examination of the allegations surrounding Donald Trump’s potential market manipulation, focusing on events in early April 2025, and integrates the S&P 500 performance, including the user’s observations about intraday movements on April 10, 2025. The analysis aims to present a balanced and thorough overview, reflecting all relevant details as of 6:07 PM BST on April 10, 2025.

Background and Context

Donald Trump’s actions in early April 2025, particularly his social media activity on Truth Social and tariff policy shifts, have sparked significant debate over potential market manipulation. Market manipulation involves artificially influencing security prices for personal gain, often through deceptive means. Trump launched Truth Social in early 2022 after being banned from major platforms like Facebook and X following the January 6 Capitol attack (What we know about Truth Social, Donald Trump's social media platform | AP News). The platform, owned by Trump Media & Technology Group, serves as his primary social media outlet, where he posts frequently to engage with supporters and make political announcements. It is common for Trump to sign his posts with “DJT,” which aligns with his initials and the company’s NASDAQ ticker symbol, as seen in various archives like Trump's Truth Archive.

On April 9, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social at 9:37 a.m. ET, stating, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” (‘Great time to buy it’: How Trump's tip on social media made money for investors who listened | AP News). Less than four hours later, at approximately 1 p.m. ET, he announced a 90-day pause on most new tariffs, except those on China, which saw an increase to 125%. This policy shift triggered a significant market rally, with the S&P 500 climbing 9.52%, closing at 5,456.90 (Trump told people to buy. Critics are calling it ‘market manipulation.’ The Washington Post). This rally was described as the best day for the S&P 500 since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis (Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny The New York Times).

Prior to this rally, markets had been under significant pressure since Trump’s initial tariff announcement on April 2, 2025. According to historical data, the S&P 500 closed at 5,670.97 on April 2, dropped to 5,396.52 on April 3, and continued declining to 4,982.77 by April 8, representing a total drop of approximately 12.14% from April 2 to April 8 (S&P 500 Historical Data). This drop reflects the market’s reaction to the tariff policy, which initially wiped out trillions in value globally (Markets to GOP: We won't save you from Trump's folly Los Angeles Times).

Event Chronology and Market Impact

The timing of Trump’s post and the tariff pause announcement has raised eyebrows among critics, who see it as a potential signal to buy stocks before the market reacted positively to the policy change. An X post from the House Committee on Financial Services labeled it a “market manipulation scheme,” garnering over 33,000 posts on X discussing the issue (House Committee on Financial Services X post). The market movements were significant, with the following table summarizing the changes from April 2 to April 10, 2025:

Date	S&P 500 Closing Value	Change from Previous Day	Notes
April 2, 2025	5,670.97	-	Pre-tariff announcement
April 3, 2025	5,396.52	-4.84%	Post-tariff announcement drop
April 4, 2025	5,074.08	-5.97%	Continued sell-off
April 7, 2025	5,062.25	-0.23%	Slight further decline
April 8, 2025	4,982.77	-1.57%	Low before rally
April 9, 2025	5,456.90	+9.52%	Post-tariff pause rally
April 10, 2025	5,287.57	-3.10%	Correction after rally

This table highlights the volatility, with a sharp rally on April 9 followed by a correction on April 10.

On April 10, 2025, the S&P 500 exhibited significant intraday volatility, with a high of 5,491.65 and a low of 5,113.82, as noted by the user. The closing price was 5,287.57, which is a drop of 3.10% from the previous day’s close. The user’s observation that the price has “retracted over 75%” likely refers to the intraday movement, specifically that from the high of 5,491.65 to a current price around 5,222 (as approximated by the user), which represents a drop of approximately 71.37% of the day’s range (calculated as (5,491.65 - 5,222) / (5,491.65 - 5,113.82) ≈ 269.65 / 377.83 ≈ 71.37%). This interpretation aligns with the user’s focus on intraday volatility rather than a standard percentage drop from a peak, which would be around 4.91% from high to current.

Political and Legal Reactions

Democratic lawmakers have been vocal in their criticism, calling for investigations into possible insider trading and market manipulation. Senators Adam Schiff (CA) and Ruben Gallego (AZ) wrote to the acting director of the Office of Government Ethics on April 10, 2025, demanding a federal probe into whether White House officials or Trump family members were informed of the tariff pause in advance and used that information for trades (Trump told people to buy. Critics are calling it ‘market manipulation.’ The Washington Post). Senator Schiff emphasized the need to investigate, stating, “Family meme coins and all the rest of it are not beyond insider trading or enriching themselves” (Schiff Wants Tariff-Pause Investigation Over Insider Trading TIME). Senator Tim Kaine (VA) expressed suspicion, noting public queries about Trump selling short or profiting, while Senator Tina Smith (MN) questioned if Trump should be investigated, saying, “He certainly had a lot to gain. I hadn’t thought of that” (Schiff Wants Tariff-Pause Investigation Over Insider Trading TIME).

In Congress, Representative Steven Horsford (NV) raised concerns during a hearing, asking who benefited from the market movements and labeling the administration’s actions as “amateur hour” (Schiff Wants Tariff-Pause Investigation Over Insider Trading TIME). Representative Mike Levin (CA) questioned on social media, “How is this not market manipulation?” highlighting risks for retirees and middle-class sellers (Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny The New York Times).

Administration’s Defense

The White House has firmly denied any allegations of market manipulation. Spokesman Kush Desai stated that Trump’s posts were intended to reassure the economy during a period of volatility caused by his tariff policies, which had initially tanked markets (Trump told people to buy. Critics are calling it ‘market manipulation.’ The Washington Post). U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified that the tariff pause was part of an effort to “reset the global trading system” and negotiate better trade deals, not to manipulate markets (Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny The New York Times). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that the pause was for negotiations, acknowledging discussions with Trump, who described watching the bond market as “beautiful” post-announcement (Schiff Wants Tariff-Pause Investigation Over Insider Trading TIME).

Financial Stakes and Ethical Concerns

Trump’s personal financial interest in the market movements is a significant point of contention. His stake in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) increased substantially following the rally on April 9, with the stock rising over 21%. This financial benefit is particularly notable given that Trump has not divested from his businesses, raising ethical concerns about conflicts of interest (Trump told people to buy. Critics are calling it ‘market manipulation.’ The Washington Post). Critics argue that this situation could constitute a “poop and scoop” scheme, where markets are first tanked with tariffs and then recovered with a pause, potentially benefiting Trump and his allies (Trump’s Tariffs Whiplash Is Open Corruption. He Admitted It Himself. The New Republic).

Legal experts have weighed in, noting the difficulty in proving market manipulation. James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University, suggested that Trump’s post, while material given his role, is too vague to easily pin as a securities law violation. Richard Painter, a former ethics lawyer, warned of legal risks but stopped short of confirming illegality without proof of specific trades (Trump told people to buy. Critics are calling it ‘market manipulation.’ The Washington Post).

Market Behavior and Profit-Taking

The user’s observation that the S&P 500 has shown significant intraday volatility on April 10, with a high of 5,491.65 and a low of 5,113.82, and a current price around 5,222, suggests a retraction of about 71.37% of the day’s range from high to current. This is consistent with normal market behavior following significant gains, especially in response to policy-driven volatility. The drop of 3.10% from April 9’s close to April 10’s close may indicate profit-taking by investors who bought during the April 9 rally, but without evidence of unusual trading patterns, such as abnormal volumes or coordinated selling, it cannot be conclusively attributed to market manipulation (S&P 500 Historical Data).

Current Status and Lack of Conclusive Evidence

As of 6:07 PM BST on April 10, 2025, no official investigations by regulatory bodies like the SEC have been announced, and no concrete evidence of insider trading or market manipulation has been presented in public reports. The allegations are based on circumstantial evidence, such as the timing of Trump’s posts, the market’s reaction, and his financial stake in DJT. However, without specific trading records, communications, or whistleblower leaks, the claims remain speculative. Social media speculation on X, with over 33,000 posts discussing manipulation, reflects public concern but lacks substantiation (Trump told people to buy. Critics are calling it ‘market manipulation.’ The Washington Post).

Conclusion and Future Outlook

In conclusion, while there are strong allegations and calls for investigation into Donald Trump’s potential market manipulation, as of 6:07 PM BST on April 10, 2025, there is no conclusive evidence to support these claims. The S&P 500’s performance, including the 9.52% rally on April 9 and the 3.10% drop on April 10, with intraday volatility showing a high of 5,491.65 and low of 5,113.82, is consistent with normal market reactions to policy announcements. The user’s observation of a “75% retraction” likely refers to the price dropping about 71.37% of the day’s range, which is within typical volatility and does not inherently indicate manipulation without further proof. Given the calls for investigation, future developments may provide more clarity, but currently, the evidence is circumstantial and lacks definitive proof. Readers are encouraged to follow updates from regulatory bodies and news outlets for any official findings.

Key Citations