Gary's Soapbox: Mayhems Falklands

In 1982 Thatcher was heading for an election defeat. The decision to go to war indisputably saved her, it was a gamble that paved the way for the destruction of the unions and Thatcherism.

But was it a gamble or a well executed plan to avoid defeat in the 1983 election. Thatcher would have had to turn around some negatives not only in her own party, the Tories were already sharpening the knives and she had little support in her own party. She was also well behind in the polls defeat was almost inevitable.

There are several points that lead me to believe that Thatcher constructed the ability of the Argentines to invade by purposely missing obvious signals. (I've already covered this in another post linked here)

The main points were

The British ignored things that the Argentinian's were saying in the UN or hints that they were making about military action.
John Nott withdrew the Endeavor which was the support ship for the Falklands.
The British government brought in the British nationality act of 1981 which replaced the full British citizenship of Falkland islanders with the more limited version.
Intelligence had been received that the Argentinian's might attempt something and Thatcher was advised to dispatch a small military force, but refused to do so.

As the Guardian reported

Though spring brought some relief to the battered economy, Thatcher appeared a weak, broken leader with little support even within her party. What was later called Thatcherism was still a dream, with only top-rate tax cuts in place. The ruling obsession was reducing double-digit inflation and cutting public spending. Nothing else seemed to concern the government.

In the frontline for cuts were defence and foreign affairs. John Nott's defence review would pull back the surface fleet to home waters. Hong Kong was to be handed over to the Chinese and a tiny colony of islands in the south Atlantic was being negotiated for "sale and leaseback" to neighbouring Argentina by Thatcher's trusted junior foreign minister, Nicholas Ridley. The one naval vessel in its vicinity, HMS Endurance, was to be withdrawn.

To Argentina's military junta, the British government was patently eager to dispose of the Falklands. Thus when Ridley's initiative was mauled in the Commons and talks stalled, the invitation to the Argentinian junta to imitate India's seizure of Goa in 1961 was irresistible. The invasion was named Operation Goa. Even with tension mounting, Thatcher turned a deaf ear to pleas from the Foreign Office to reinforce the islands and deploy ships to the area. The foreign secretary, Lord Carrington, felt his relations with Thatcher were too delicate to press the matter.

The gamble or plan paid off and the rest is history

So lets move onto Theresa May

Pretty similar, having a car crash year. Bad decisions regarding elections, losing support within her own party. Down in the polls with Labour taking a lead in recent polls. Probably being set up to take the Brexit flack as she's unlikely to lead the Tories into the next election on current standing.

So maybe North Korea will become Mays Falklands ...... could 1982 be rewritten with 2018? Time will tell.

The prime minister's decision to go to war in 1982, with her government on the brink of collapse, changed everything.

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